tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-41917926421376671692024-03-05T13:13:35.692-08:00SpectatorA discussion of the case for independence and an examination of the flaws in the Unionist argument for the Union with England.Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.comBlogger110125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-51797243481564640502021-06-15T09:02:00.000-07:002021-06-15T09:02:13.436-07:00WHERE DOES INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENT GO FROM HERE?<p>Perhaps the Independence Movement, whatever that is now, should ask itself a few questions before it tries to answer that. I promised Pablo Escobar, a follower on Twitter that I would try to answer some of the questions asked daily by Unionists, many of whom are not really interested in the answers. I had indeed resolved to update my views on the question of Scottish Independence, before Pablo made the request and had started to look back on many of the articles I had submitted on my blog Spectator, regularly until a couple of years ago, in the months leading up to the Referendum in 2014 and for some months after. I found that many of the questions asked daily by Unionists were answered in those blogs, references for which will be appended at the end of this piece. The truth is that many Unionists, for perfectly understandable and genuine reasons, will never be converted to Independence; just as I and many other Nationalists will never be committed to the Union, whatever form it takes. I am a committed Scottish Nationalist, dedicated to the independence of Scotland; independent from both the government of the UK in Westminster and independent of the EU. I write from that standpoint and many of the more uncomfortable questions will be aimed at the SNP, Alba and Greens as they are the parties currently claiming that the political positions they occupy are in favour of Independence. We will see.</p><p><u style="font-weight: bold;">INDEPENDENCE;</u> </p><p>What does it mean to those who currently profess to believe in it? Under international law, independence means, "External Sovereignty" ie "right to exercise freely the full range of power a state possesses under international law. The status of a fully independent state should be contrasted with that of dependent or vassal states, where a superior state has the legal authority to impose its will over the subject state." - Montevideo Convention 1937. Independent states should have the following:-</p><div style="text-align: left;">1) permanent population<br />2) defined territory<br />3) a government<br />4) an ability to form relations with other nation states.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u>SOVEREIGNTY</u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;">The concept of Sovereignty means something entirely different in Scotland from the meaning which prevails in England. In Scotland, Sovereignty rests with the Scottish people while in England, it rests with the Crown in Parliament. On July 4th 2018 the House of Commons officially endorsed the principle of the Claim of Right, agreeing that the people of Scotland are sovereign and have the right to determine the best form of government for Scotland's needs. But this was a non-binding agreement and did not create any <b>legal</b> recognition of the Claim of Right. That does not take us much further in understanding what the concept of Sovereignty means in the modern world but a clear understanding of the concept and its ramifications are essential if we are to pass judgement on the beliefs and behaviour of those who claim to be in favour of Scottish Independence.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Sovereignty in the modern political context is the ultimate resting place of <i style="font-weight: bold;">legitimate</i> authority. Sovereignty means the supreme and controlling power of an absolute and independent authority (such as a state). It is the place where arbitration stops, it is the source of final decisions from which there is no further appeal. The emphasis here is on the word <i style="font-weight: bold;">"legitimate"</i> because sovereignty can be usurped by means of armed force, brainwashing, propaganda etc.(common practise of foreign states using England instead of UK or insistence Britain is a single country. UK practise of using Anglo treaties rather than UK) It is true that power can be exercised directly or delegated by a sovereign authority, but power is all too frequently exercised without such legitimisation, or even against the will of the sovereign authority, under the principle of "might is right". The fact that it may not be possible or expedient to oppose such exercise of power effectively does not legitimise it in the slightest.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Sovereignty is not simply an abstract concept, it has practical applications. A claim to sovereignty is a claim by some representative authority in the name of "the people" to exercise a monopoly of law making and law-enforcement within a designated territory. In an increasingly interdependent world, sovereign states have accepted specific treaty limitations on their law-making rights <b>BUT NOT NECESSARILY</b> on a permanent basis. The <i style="font-weight: bold;">"sovereignty of the people"</i> is the international standard in states all over the world with vastly differing socio-economic structures. In most cases it is written into their constitutions. To get a flavour of just how corrupted the terminology currently being used in the debate surrounding the meaning of words such as "Independence" and "Sovereignty" we have only to listen to any number of SNP members, from Nicola Sturgeon to MSPs to ordinary SNP members. The definition of Independence has become so elastic that almost any combination of circumstances equates to "Independence". The famous Dundee actor Brian Cox, trumpeted on BBCs Question Time, "I am not a Nationalist I am an Internationalist". No one on the panel had the wit to ask him how he got one without the other. He may be a talented actor but Mr Cox, to use a weel kent Dundee phrase, kens he-haw aboot politics. Nicola Sturgeon has stated she would prefer to change the name of the Scottish National Party because she dislikes the word <b><i>"National".</i></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Then we had Andrew Wilson, author of the infamous Growth Report and SNP anchor man during TV summaries of the recent election results, telling Andrew Neil that the only truly independent country in the world is North Korea. His comments and preference for Sterlingisation, which he championed in his Growth Report, will be covered in my next blog when I look at the economic implications of Independence and discuss the need for a Scottish currency. Perhaps the most ludicrous definition of Sovereignty in recent times, was that of EU Commission Chief, Ursula van der Leyan who claimed, "sovereignty actually means being able to work, study and do business in any of 27 countries...to make members heard in a world of Great Powers". This fits very well however with the SNP's absolute and total commitment to full membership of the EU, which they insist should be called Independence in Europe, a slogan coined by Jim Sillars in 1988 and foisted on the SNP without the party ever having debated it. Jim Sillars has now decided that the true nature and intentions of the EU, make that slogan no longer appropriate.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Despite anyone who has any idea of the politics of the EU being able to recognise what is required in order to first of all join, then retain membership, the SNP, Greens and Alba (the last named now favour membership of EEA and call that Independence) continue to argue members of the EU are Independent. Although having asked countless times for ANY member of the SNP, from Nicola Sturgeon to ordinary party members, who dutifully parrot the party mantra, to EXPLAIN how the 19 members of the euro, none of which has its own currency, central bank or control of its own economy, can be Independent. I have yet to receive a single response. I have asked the question in different ways but can't get past the wall of silence. I debated with Alyn - keep the light on - yes Scotland will adopt the euro - Smyth, some years ago at Beith in Ayrshire, on the question of Scotland and the EU. We both made our presentations and one questioner asked Alyn Smith if he could explain "Independence in Europe" as he found it difficult to grasp the concept. Smith's answer was, "You have heard my presentation. I have nothing further to add." He has maintained that silence ever since. Are these people stupid, lying or just taking Scottish people for granted and feel they don't need to answer? You decide but over one million Scots voted against membership of the EU and have been ignored ever since.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Readers will find details of the following in many of the references listed at the end of this piece, but it does no harm to repeat them for the benefit of those who will not bother to read the relative references, to what it means to be a member of the EU. That includes those in the SNP, Greens and Alba who claim to be in favour of Independence and seek membership of the EU or EEA at one and the same time. Any country seeking membership of the EU - that includes Scotland if it decides to end the Union with England - <u style="font-weight: bold;">must</u> - satisfy the conditions of membership agreed under the <b>Copenhagen Criteria agreed in 1993.</b> They are as follows:-</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">1) stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, human rights and respect for minorities, the rule of law</div><div style="text-align: left;">2) functioning market economy and capacity to cope with competition and market forces within the EU</div><div style="text-align: left;">3) the ability to take on and implement immediately the obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of <b><i>Political, Economic and Monetary Union.</i></b></div><div style="text-align: left;">Candidates must adopt, implement, enforce <b><i>all EU rules - THE AQUIS</i></b></div><div style="text-align: left;">Anyone who claims to be in favour of Independence and membership of the EU at the same time really must read the conditions of membership of the EU and ask themselves if that is what they really want.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">In 1986 I wrote the following in my regular column in the Scots Independent, "Patriotism/Nationalism or love of one's country has nothing to do with economics. The desire to be free should not be measured in direct proportion to the level of per capita income that will or may be enjoyed once "freedom" has been won.....Unless Scots can be persuaded to look at Scotland as something a bit more than just a meal ticket, then freedom from the suffocating alliance with England will forever remain a dream". I still believe that to be true. The following year the SNP fought the disastrous election of 1987 when it lost both Dundee East and Western Isles, using the ludicrous Pact with Plaid and Hung Parliament strategy dreamed up by that mastermind of strategy, Alex Salmond. Scotland's traditional Labour support, persuaded by the SNP's promise of a hung parliament at Westminster, returned another nine Labour seats in Scotland, bringing their total MPs to 50 - the infamous "Feeble Fifty". In the UK the Tories won a majority of 102.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">To date the entire case for membership of the EU/EEA has been based on access to a market of 500 million. The question of what that means for the independence of Scotland has gone ignored, unanswered when questioned and lied about by the SNP, Greens and Alba leadership. The rules of membership show how little independence members have but there are even more disturbing issues about the EU which should cause concern. On May 9th David Pratt, Foreign Editor of The National, wrote a piece called "Europe's right turn?" in which he detailed the rise of the Right in EU politics. It received little attention in Independence circles but it is well worth reading because it touches on an issue which the Independence Movement and other Europhiles tend to avoid viz. Fascism. My late wife and I travelled widely in Europe, both East and West. As a keen horseman I took every opportunity to find a handy equestrian centre and have seen more than tourists normally see by going riding. Not only that, I have spent many hours in the company of ordinary Europeans who talked much more naturally and freely than they might do in the corridors of power. I never got involved in deep political discussion but I listened a great deal to what was being said, some of which made me uncomfortable. Whatever Nationalists say about England/Britain, Fascism as a creed never took root here but the same cannot be said about the member states of the EU. Of the original six member states, Germany and Italy had Fascist governments while France had Vichy. Of the current members of the EU, Spain and Portugal had 40 years of Fascist government while the Greeks had the Colonels, Austria, Croatia were totally Fascist and even Norway had Quisling. If the Right does make a reappearance in the EU, as I believe it will, it has a long history to build on. Does the wider Independence Movement really want to become a part of a European Union, in which it will have little or no influence and which intends becoming even more centralised? Think about it.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">References.</div><div style="text-align: left;">1) Was Independence done Any Favours? May 2013</div><div style="text-align: left;">2) And That Is Independence? May 2013</div><div style="text-align: left;">3) Scottish Alternatives to the EU May 2013</div><div style="text-align: left;">4) I am Not a Nationalist - But October 2012</div><div style="text-align: left;">5) An Independent Scotland does Have Alternatives November 2012</div><div style="text-align: left;">6) Do Scots Have And Identity And Is It Important? December 2012</div><div style="text-align: left;">7) Politics And Opportunity Cost October 2012</div><div style="text-align: left;">8) "We Are Bought And Sold For English Gold" Or The £500 Jocks January 2014</div><div style="text-align: left;">9) Independence - Don't Make Me Laugh January 2014</div><div style="text-align: left;">10) Carmichael And Darling Do The No side No Favours January 2014</div><div style="text-align: left;">11) Are Scots The Most Venal People On Earth - Or Is It Just Our Politicians?</div><div style="text-align: left;">12) Did Mark Carney Clarify Anything That Scots Did Not Know Already? Jan 2014</div><div style="text-align: left;">13) Poverty - The Curse Of Scotland February 2014</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">All of the above can be found on <b><i>jimfairlie.blogspot.com</i></b></div>Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-92032427988283974932021-04-01T01:56:00.000-07:002021-04-01T01:56:23.070-07:00Alex Salmond as The Great Independence Strategist<p> I have been writing articles, columns and Blogs for over 50 years. On only two occasions did Alex Salmond figure as the main or only subject; the first when I did a summary of his first leadership term for my Spectator Column with the Perthshire Advertiser. The second occasion was when I wrote in my Spectator Blog, "If Scots Vote NO Blame Alex Salmond" This was written in the aftermath of his debate with Alistair Darling prior to the Referendum on Independence in 2014. I argued that his obsession with forcing the Westminster Government to agree to a Currency Union with an "Independent" Scotland would create confusion among Scots voters, leading to uncertainty over the ability of an "Independent" Scotland's ability to run its economy. And so it proved as the vast majority of Scots, including those in the SNP who backed Salmond's demand for a Currency Union, failed to understand that had a Currency Union been granted, Scotland would not have been independent as London would have continued to control Scotland's economy. Salmond's claim that what was more important was Fiscal Autonomy made his claims even more ludicrous, particularly as he worked as an "oil economist" with the Royal Bank.</p><p>What prompts this latest blog is the creation of the new political party Alba and the repeated claim that Alex Salmond is a political strategist with a political record second to none, in his pursuit of Scottish Independence. For a start, I do not believe Salmond actually wants independence, having supported the imposition of Independence in Europe at the SNP Annual Conference in 1988, he has been a strong supporter of membership of the EU ever since, despite the ever increasing centralisation of the EU through the Luxembourg Agreement abolishing the veto in the important areas of government, the Single European Act, Maastricht and the setting up of the euro. SNP members who still maintain that membership of the EU, including the single currency, does not affect Scottish independence, resolutely refuse to explain HOW members of the EU retain their independence. I have pursued SNP leaders and members over a number of years, from Nicola Sturgeon down, to give that explanation only to be met by a wall of silence. But my cynicism of Salmond's commitment to Independence goes back further than 1988,</p><p>When I demitted office as Deputy Leader I retained my place on the NEC and, as a member of the Election Committee which was responsible for the vetting and training of those who wanted to be included on the party's candidate's list, I interviewd Salmond in 1984. We put candidates under pressure, putting questions to them they were likely to meet if they were ever adopted for a parliamentary constituency. I put it to Salmond, "If you could be certain that Scotland would be worse off under Independence, would you still be a Nationalist?" I put that question to every candidate just to see how they would handle it because the question of Scotland's ability to "afford" Independence was the most common objection to Independence they were likely to face. As my own position was well known, as someone who wanted Independence for its own sake and not based on the question of affordability or economics, candidates were normally cautious about how they answered. Salmond replied, "I don't think I could be as definite as you. That is something I would have to consider." He was the only potential candidate EVER to give that answer.<br /></p><p>Salmond always saw his great strength in publicity and he was elected to the office of Vice Chairman for Publicity in 1985. At the Annual Conference in 1986 he launched his "big idea" of the pact with Plaid Cymru. This relied on the notion that the next election - probably 1987 - would result in a hung parliament, "If Westminster should have a hung parliament, let it hang by a Scottish rope" became the campaign slogan. He advocated the pact with Plaid should offer to keep Labour in power in order to deny the Tories under Thatcher, another term in office. For that to be a realistic option the Labour Party would have had to be in a position where it was relatively close to the Tories in the previous General Election in 1983. The actual result in 1983 gave the Tories a majority of 144. Was the situation in Scotland any more likely to persuade Scots that the Salmond strategy could work. The 1983 election had been a disaster for the SNP which returned two MPs, Gordon Wilson and Donnie Stewart and polled only 11.8% of the popular vote. Nevertheless Salmond forecast that we would take at least seven Tory seats and that the greatest victories would be between the Tay and Moray Firth.</p><p>But what about the Labour vote in Scotland? How would the Salmond strategy go down in the Labour heartlands of West Central Scotland? If the SNP's election campaign was to push the idea that Labour would come so close to winning in the rest of the UK, as to create a hung parliament situation, would that not encourage Scots sympathetic to Labour in any case, to be all the more likely to vote for them in the hope of winning throughout the UK? That thought never seemed to enter Salmond's mind is the generous interpretation of his lack of overall strategy. It could also be claimed he was not concerned about the potential Labour vote in Scotland and how it would effect fellow SNP candidates who were contesting in Labour held seats, after all he was contesting the Tory held Banff and Buchan seat. In the event the Labour Party in Scotland won another nine seats, taking them to a total of 50 with an increased share of the vote of 7.3% to a total of 42.4%, while the SNP won three Tory held seats, increasing their share of the vote by 2.3% to 14.1% and losing Dundee East and Western Isles in the process, both to Labour. My article in the SI, "You Were Warned", written in the aftermath of that election sums up just what a disaster the Salmond strategy was for the SNP as a whole.The Tories won the election with a majority of 102.</p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq6YqH5Hy1X1GghtSnruXeHqED00l__ZjspgFfXpGzoiJ_aDtYSk0K1INjCuv7AUEPJ4l_Qh_ShxTv4ClrMHLljpnYv5DLXfirrh1a3Wm2Z-1O-hI2KhkR1520cHfBOZ6XqVkSV8MaCoRc/s2048/warned.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1501" height="755" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq6YqH5Hy1X1GghtSnruXeHqED00l__ZjspgFfXpGzoiJ_aDtYSk0K1INjCuv7AUEPJ4l_Qh_ShxTv4ClrMHLljpnYv5DLXfirrh1a3Wm2Z-1O-hI2KhkR1520cHfBOZ6XqVkSV8MaCoRc/w538-h755/warned.jpg" width="538" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>Salmond supporters claim with justification, that he was responsible for getting Cameron to agree to a Scottish Referendum in 2014. What they tend to forget, he also agreed to a Section 30, thereby agreeing that Westminster should have the final say on whther Scots can hold referenda in the future. That was a complete surrender of Scottish sovereignty and still haunts the current SNP government to this day. His "once in a generation" comment, meant no doubt as an encouragement to Scots to come out and vote, has been hijacked by the Unionist opposition in a most ludicrous and dishonest fashion. One would have thought that would have taught him a lesson but, true to his customary short termism and fondness for the smart comment, he has now saddled the Independence Movement with his latest gaffe, the "Supermajority" needed to justify Independence. What is a "Supermajority" and how many seats does it mean? No doubt the Unionists will tell us shortly. Salmond may have been instrumental in getting the Cameron Government to agree to the 2014 Referendum but he then destroyed any possibility of Scots voting "Yes" with his obsession with the Currency Union, thereby insisting that London should continue to control the Scottish economy. He more than anyone, destroyed any chance the Independence Movement had of winning that referendum.</p><p>We will have to see whether or not Alba will continue to seek membership of the EU or attempt to fudge the issue by suggesting EFTA. If it suggests membership of the EEA, Scots will still be subject to EU regulations but it will no doubt continue to be sold to the Scottish electorate as "Independence". Alex Salmond may be many things, but a strategist is most definitely not one of them.</p><p>ENDS<br /></p>Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-64188269066795154042019-06-18T05:09:00.000-07:002019-06-18T14:44:48.518-07:00Scotland Will NEVER See Independence With The Current SNP!When I joined the SNP in 1955, I was a 15 year old school boy, about to go up to a senior secondary school to take my highers. I had no idea what I wanted to do with my life, no ambition to be anything special and no thought about university. In fact, being the eldest in a family of four, with a father who was a bus driver, had I not won a bursary, my parents would not have been able to afford to keep me on at school. In 1950's Perthshire, there was no such thing as grants for further education, but my parents were prepared to make the necessary sacrifice, the extra shifts, to keep a teenager, who ate like a horse and seemed to grow out of every stitch of clothing he had every month or so, in further education as far as he could go. I worked as a message boy and at every opportunity of seasonal work<br />
like tatties and berries, that was available. Despite the determination to get an education, and despite the encouragement at home to "stick in", I still had no idea what I wanted to be or do. The one thing about which I was absolutely certain, was Scottish Independence.<br />
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I was an insatiable reader, I devoured books at an incredible rate, particularly military history books, as well as history books in general. I had read T.E Lawrence's "The Seven Pillars of Wisdom" by the time I was thirteen. I could never get enough of Scottish history, an interest which in turn led me to the SNP. Perth was one of the very few parts of Scotland which had had an active SNP presence since the end of WW11, and a wee shop in Old High Street, which acted as the local HQ. The windows which fronted the shop were always full of SNP literature, booklets, pamphlets and Scottish history books. It was like an Aladdin's Cave for somebody like me, and I haunted the place. It was inevitable, that I should join the party as it was the only political party that had Scottish Independence as its main aim. Indeed, the party had been formed for that very purpose, the restoration of Scotland as an Independent Nation State. The development of my general political thought came later, although not much later. In the early days, I listened and read and questioned when I didn't understand. I cut my early political teeth in the street campaigns, delivering leaflets, listening to older Nationalists, as they debated with our opponents. Perth City is the only town in Scotland, which had a Scottish National Party candidate, at every General Election for Westminster, since 1945, although not always in the same Parliamentary Constituency as boundary changes made that inevitable.<br />
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Even as a 15 year old novice, I struggled to try to make sense of some of the arguments frequently advanced by the opponents of Independence; not because of their intricacy nor their need for a much deeper knowledge of politics, both theory and practice, than I possessed at that time. On the contrary, it was because of the superficiality or, on many occasions, the sheer bloody stupidity of many of them. On more than one occasion, I could hardly believe that anyone would advance the following as a serious argument against independence. "Where would we get our pineapples?" I was asked. Taken aback, and unsure if this was a serious question, I hesitated slightly while trying to hide my initial confusion with a grin. "Well", I began, only to be interrupted by a triumphant, "Go on then, tell us, where would we get our pineapples?" Many years later, one of our sons, getting involved in a political discussion for the first time with his future father-in-law, was asked, "Where would we get our bananas?" Obviously, Unionist concerns with the likely availability of fruit not normally native to Scotland, had never been properly addressed by the Nationalist movement. This being Scotland, religion had to play its part. "Home Rule means Rome Rule" was a favourite of the Orange Lodge while, my Catholic relatives in Royston Hill in Glasgow, assured me that Labour's claim, "Get independence and they will shut down Catholic schools" was "evidence" that Catholics wouldn't stand a chance. "Evidence?" I asked, "Aye, we got a leaflet outside Mass last Sunday". The absolute pinnacle of "nonsensical religious reasons for not voting for independence" came during a discussion I had while driving a machine on the construction site of the Turret Dam, just outside Crieff. I was informed - expletives deleted - "The Papes in Rome and the Wee Frees will carve up the country between them and then we'll aw be f..@#~." Naturally, no evidence was presented or even needed evidently. It would definitely happen.<br />
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Anyone who has ever been involved in the National Movement will be familiar with similar objections to Independence or the more sinister claims that Nationalism was the same as, or would inevitably lead to, Nazism/Fascism/Totalitarianism of some sort. These claims can still be seen among the more stupid accusations that appear daily among the general tripe we find on social media. Unfortunately, much of it comes from the ranks of the so-called National Movement. I make no apology for calling out those offenders who appear daily on Twitter or other vehicles of social media, purporting to support Scottish Independence, because the stupidity of much of their contribution to the daily exchange of views on Scottish Independence, does little to persuade those Scots who genuinely have doubts about the wisdom of Independence, to re-examine their doubts. There will be those who will never be persuaded to support Independence, anymore than I will ever be persuaded to support Union with either the rUK or the EU. However, in a blog I wrote on 14th October 2014 entitled, "<b>What Do Yes Voters Mean By Independence. Is It Worth A Candle?"</b> I quoted Sir Alexander Malcolm MacEwan, the first leader of the SNP 1934 to 1936, who made two observations that are just as apposite today as they were then. He said, "It is plain truth that no great National Movement was ever founded on caution and half-hearted measures..." and "the objections to Home Rule are not so much reasoned arguments as vague apprehensions, but fear is often more potent than reason and must be dealt with.." A quick trawl through the daily contributions on Twitter by the adherents of Independence in Europe, will highlight just how potent fear of Independence actually is.<br />
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<b>The SNP has NEVER debated IF members of the EU, CAN be Independent. </b><br />
Discussion about how membership of the EEC would effect Independence, was certainly a hot topic, a very hot topic in the late 1980s among the rank and file of the SNP, largely because Winnie Ewing was our only MEP at that time and certainly earned her title of Madame Ecosse, ensuring the name of not just Scotland, but the SNP, was heard loud and clear in the corridors of power there. Unfortunately, Winnie tended to take any criticism of the EEC personally, causing some senior party members to back off making any criticism at all. The <b>Single European Act</b>, described by its critics as the single biggest surrender of national sovereignty since the Treaty of Rome, was passed by the National Executive Committee (NEC) at its monthly meeting in April 1988, by 14 votes to 4. I was one of the four. The <b>Single European Act</b>, was <b>NEVER </b>discussed inside the SNP at <b>ANY</b> other level, National Assembly, National Council or Annual Conference. This meant that the party membership was <b>NEVER </b> given any opportunity to debate whether or not they were prepared to surrender sovereignty to the EEC. In his book, "SNP: The Turbulent Years 1960-1990" the late Gordon Wilson, who was National Chairman at that time, wrote, "the Single European Act did not threaten national sovereignty, posed no problems for existing SNP policy on the EEC and offered opportunities for the Party to avoid association with political or economic separatism." I took great exception to that, particularly the last part, and told Gordon in no uncertain terms. The adoption of the slogan "<b>Independence in Europe" </b>was thrust upon the party membership without discussion at any level and without prior notification, at the 1988 Annual Conference.<br />
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Thus <b>Independence</b>, while a member of the EEC, was given to the party as a <b>policy</b>, which was never discussed and never explained. Those party members like me, who objected to the surrender of sovereignty without any attempt to allow party members to debate the issue, were cast in the role of "malcontents" or members, "not prepared to accept party policy", while ignoring the fact the "policy" had been imposed without any debate or even discussion. Between 1988 and 1990, the influence of Alex Salmond and Jim Sillars grew to such an extent that it was impossible to make any criticism of the SNP's commitment to Independence in Europe and be taken seriously by the party membership, despite the fact there was continuing hostility to the notion that support for the EEC was the one policy which would continue to carry the SNP forward. Since I left the party in 1990, on the grounds that I believe the SNP no longer seeks Independence, there has still been no debate about the realities of membership of the EU. Many of those who follow me regularly on Twitter or read my occasional blogs, are just as regularly offended/irritated by my relentless criticism of the SNP's "Independence in Europe" policy stance. I am frequently categorised as, being "full of bitterness" or "hatred of the SNP" but the one thing my critics never do, and that is <b>debate</b> the issues involved. They assert, they pass opinions and give forecasts, as if they are evidence. Unfortunately, ask them to <b>explain HOW</b>, for example, Luxembourg carries the same clout as Germany or France; or <b>HOW </b>the 19 members of the euro zone can follow <b>independent</b> economic policies and what follows is generally abuse or, <b>silence.</b><br />
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One of the reasons the No campaign found it so easy to ridicule many of the claims made by the Yes side, arises from the way in which the meaning of the word "Independence" has been stretched to the point where there is no circumstance, or set of circumstances, which the SNP does not include in its definition. Thus, if Scots had been permitted to have the Currency Union promoted by the SNP during the Independence Referendum Campaign, and had voted Yes, as far as the SNP was concerned, Scotland would have been independent. However, if we had voted Yes but been denied the Currency Union, as Westminster said we would be, the SNP would have still said we were Independent, despite the two positions being polar opposites. After the failure of the Yes Campaign to get a majority for Independence, suddenly the stupidities of that policy position became the main topic for debate. The plaintive, "It's our pound as well as Westminster's" despite being finally seen for what it was, a piece of childish nonsense, has still been used by Ian Blackford, in some of his regular TV appearances defending the Growth Commission report. When Alex Salmond suddenly threw in the threat that, if Westminster refused to agree to a Currency Union, as demanded by the SNP, and Scots voted Yes, a Scottish Government dominated by the SNP, would refuse to pay Scotland's share of the National Debt, some in the National Movement said, "About time". What Salmond was saying in effect, was Scotland would only pay its share of UK National Debt, <b>IF</b> London continued to control the Scottish economy through a Currency Union. And not a single leading member of the SNP even tried to point out the contradictions inherent in that policy position.<br />
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<b>Independence has become a dirty word.</b><br />
When the SNP published their proposals for Independence, including the Currency Union, John Kay, one of the economists who had been an adviser to Alex Salmond, was moved to say , "<b>It makes one wonder what Independence actually means".</b> Anyone regularly participating on the forums of social media such as Twitter is unlikely to get the answer there, particularly from the Independence in Europe fraternity of the SNP. One of The National's regular columnists, Pat Kane, in his column of February 23rd 2019 entitled, "<b>So what does it mean to be "independent" today anyway?"</b> wrote, "<b>But the semantic truth is that the basic Oxford definition of "independent" (free from outside control; not subject to another's authority") more properly applies to the scorched-earth autarchists of Rees-Mogg and co, than it does to the steady Euro-pragmatism of the SNP".</b> I am told regularly on Twitter that, <b>"in today's interdependent world, no country is independent"</b> My regular sparring partner Peter Bell, assures us, <b>"there is no single definition of independence"</b> but refuses to explain either how many there are or, what those that he claims exist actually say. When I suggested there might be as many as 3 million, he simply called me a liar. Again in "The National" of Friday June 14th 2019, Mr Les Hunter writes, <b>"What those who advocate a referendum question offering independence outwith the EU are implying, whether they realise it or not, is that it might be preferable to remain in the UK as a glorified local authority in a remnant of empire.."</b> In the same copy of The National, a Barry Stewart writes, <b>"I'm beginning to wonder if some of those anti-EU pro-independence folks are a) misguided or b) MI5 plants to "divide and conquer." </b>Again, another regular contributor to "The National", Stan Grodynski, writes on March 27, 2019, <b>asking Jim Sillars and I, "why Scotland's trading future should not be tied to membership of the EU, nor perhaps of EFTA or the EEA?"</b> I begin to get visions of <b> "Where will we get our pineapples?"</b> again.<br />
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The politics of Independence don't even come into it. One contributor to Twitter posted, <b>"It is impossible to even have a conversation with an SNP clone as they refuse to attribute meaning to words, ensuring all attempts to engage with the SNP results in absurdity and contradiction."</b> The SNP has narrowed down the alternatives for Scotland to either a) part of the UK or b) part of the EU, which it calls Independence in Europe. Each and every arguments it puts forward concerns <b>"threat to 100,000 jobs"</b> - that figure was originally set at over 300,000. Forecasts of how much the Scottish economy will lose, presented as "evidence" are based on figures which assume ceteris paribus, over periods stretching from ten years to thirty years. Every one of those arguments will be thrown back at them by Better Together or whatever Unionist organisation is cobbled together to fight the next Independence Referendum, if there is ever a next time. My critic from The National, Mr Turner writes, <b>"The problem is that he (that is me) has not received the response he wants because there are people at all levels of the SNP who simply do not agree with his views"...</b>and<b>..."there will never be a right answer for him, because he is not prepared to consider that his opinions might just possibly be wrong."</b> What Mr Turner and others who take exception to the arguments I extend ignore, is that much of my criticism of the SNP is not based on my opinions but on the SNP's attempts to re-write the laws of economics.<br />
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I couldn't care less if SNP members believe the earth is flat or the moon is made of green cheese (although some of their beliefs are pretty close parallels) neither of those beliefs is likely to effect the cause of Independence. What will, and does effect the cause of Independence, is the SNP's attempts to re-write the laws of economics and their crass refusals to brook any deviation, not just by party members but by the Scottish people. Despite the farce of the Currency Union with rUK equals Independence, monetary policy is not important <b>"in the modern world where fiscal autonomy is now more important" </b>sinking the Independence Referendum in 2014, we are going to get a repeat for the next attempt. The Growth Commission laboured long and hard and produced a squeak called "sterlingisation". The SNP has now saddled the Independence Movement with an economic policy which is followed by no other advanced economy in the "modern world", the world my critics love to remind me we now inhabit. I have asked repeatedly for someone, anyone in the SNP, to explain how that is Independence or helps the cause of Independence. I have not had a single response. Robin MacAlpine posed 10 similar questions and received no reply, Common Weal has had the same response, as has George Kerevan. We are all supporters of Independence but I for one, have no intention of presenting that nonsense as a rational argument for Independence.<br />
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The following statement from Derek Mackay, the current Secretary for Finance sums up the SNP beautifully. In The National, April 6th 2019 (<b>Timing must be right for our new currency)</b> he writes; <b>"We will move to a Scottish pound - but there is no need to set an arbitrary timetable"</b> Does that mean we could have the pound sterling indefinitely? Did the SNP not decide at their Conference that we would have a Scottish currency within the first term of an Independent Parliament, ie with in five years? <b>"The case for Independence is simple. Decisions about Scotland should be made by the people of Scotland". </b>Agreed, but how can that be done inside the EU? <b>"Independence empowers us, gives us choices and allows us to tailor economic policy to suit Scotland's needs" </b>Agreed, but,<b> </b>How can we do that inside the EU, even outside the euro, or under sterlingisation? <b>"Independence...decisions being made for our interests in Scotland, not against our interests by governments we didn't vote for"</b> Agreed. which government will we be voting for inside the EU? As MEPs vote in groupings based on ideological lines and not country and with a potential 13 MEPs out of approx 751, split among various ideological groups, how will Scotland's interests be promoted, let alone protected? Mr Mackay's statement is only a small example of the kind of platitudinous, contradictory nonsense that litters SNP statements on Independence in Europe. If they cannot explain them, how are they going to persuade Scots to vote for them?<br />
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<b>The Independence Movement has a decision to make</b>.<br />
Does it allow the SNP to continue to ignore those who want Independence out of the EU and the UK, completely ignoring the tremendous efforts being made by AUOB to keep the cause of Independence to the fore. Or do they tell the SNP to <b>COMMIT </b>to a referendum on the EU, thereby <b>ceasing to CONFLATE</b> Independence and membership of the EU <b>or WITHDRAW SUPPORT</b>? The Independence in Europe fraternity, desperate to remind opponents like me, that we live in a modern, interdependent, world need to be reminded - daily and often - that in this "modern, interdependent world", as a supranational, institution that demands the surrender of sovereignty as a prerequisite for membership, the EU is <b>UNIQUE</b>. There are over 200 independent, sovereign nations which exist and function very happily <b>OUTSIDE</b> the EU. That is where we can get our pineapples and our bananas. It is normal. It is our choice.<br />
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<br />Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-77126273134581661212018-03-08T11:17:00.001-08:002018-03-08T11:17:45.816-08:00Spectator: "The Case For Independence Has Never Been Greater"...<a href="http://jimfairlie.blogspot.com/2018/03/the-case-for-independence-has-never.html?spref=bl">Spectator: "The Case For Independence Has Never Been Greater"...</a>: "It seems beyond human comprehension how those separate and distinct interests can be supported by one Parliament. The Scots deserve no...Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-86016619177183360192018-03-08T10:47:00.002-08:002018-03-08T11:10:36.442-08:00"The Case For Independence Has Never Been Greater" - So Go Demand It.<b>"It seems beyond human comprehension how those separate and distinct interests can be supported by one Parliament. The Scots deserve no pity if they voluntarily surrender their united and separate interests to the mercy of a Parliament where the <i>English</i> shall have so vast a majority... and the 16 Scots Members may dance around to all eternity in the trap of their own making".</b> Fletcher of Saltoun was referring to the Treaty of Union of 1707 of course and he was even more scathing of his countrymen after the Treaty was signed, when, on being asked if he intended to desert his country, he replied, <b>"It is fit only for the slaves who sold it". </b>Scottish Nationalists have aye agreed with Fletcher's take on the Treaty of Union and almost 450,000 of us believe it can be applied with equal force, to the Treaty of Rome and Scotland's membership of the EU. That division of opinion in the ranks of the SNP, which also spilled over to the broader National Movement, played its part in the loss of 21 seats by the SNP, in the General Election of June 8th 2017. The other major issue that caused division was the rise of Jeremy Corbyn in the last fortnight of the campaign and the decision of recent converts from Labour to the SNP, to revert to the Labour Party, in the belief that was the way to achieve socialism or, at least a more equitable society in the UK. Independence was not a priority, nor had it ever been; it was simply seen as the best vehicle to change UK society, until Corbyn that is.<br />
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The split which led to the loss of 21 seats and almost 500,000 votes by the SNP on June 8th, was some years in the making, the genesis emerging in the aftermath of the General Election of 1979, when the party lost nine of its eleven seats. And it must be remembered that the party had only 6 Westminster Parliamentary seats until the General Election of 2015, when it won 56 of 59 of Scotland's Westminster seats and 1,454,436 or 50% of the popular vote. A number of factors came into play to explain the jump from 6 of 59 Westminster seats and 491,386 or 19.9% of the popular vote in the General Election of 2010. The most important factor of course, was the Independence Referendum of September 2014, which was lost but which energised politics in Scotland to a far greater extent than any other test of popular opinion, in Scotland's modern political history. No one, least of all the leadership of the SNP, expected the party to record such an astounding victory in 2015 and Nicola Sturgeon, in order to calm the expectations of some of the more enthusiastic SNP members in the days just before the poll, reminded supporters that anything over 11 seats would be a record for the SNP. Under the Old SNP, such a result would have been taken as a mandate to negotiate Independence but under the New Gradualist SNP, it meant, well, nothing very much. Unfortunately, it took only a few weeks for it to become obvious that the leadership had little idea how to make the best use of their total domination of Scottish politics. Instead of driving the cause of independence to new heights, Ms Sturgeon and her chief office bearers have done much to reduce its popularity. The pathetic campaign in the election of 2017, was only partly to blame for the election losses; much greater responsibility must lie with the nature of the SNP, the type of party it has become.<br />
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Political commentators tend to talk of the battles inside the SNP in the 1980s as a battle between the "Fundamentalists" and the "Gradualists", a battle which was won by the latter. Traditional Nationalists, by which I mean those who think as I do (fundamentalists or "fundies" was a derogatory name for that group) never saw the argument for independence in terms of economics - we were Nationalists long before oil was discovered - and certainly never saw it as an argument about class. We saw independence as the restoration of sovereignty, dignity, self-confidence, self-respect and an appreciation of our history, culture and languages; in short those things which independent countries see as normal and take for granted. We knew we had to rebuild the nation of Scotland, which meant appealing to the people of Scotland across classes, political allegiances and religious divides. Independence per se, had to be sold as more important than any "ism", after which Scots would build the kind of society they wanted the country to be. Gradualists on the other hand, argued Devolution would offer the opportunity of giving experience of government, however limited, and would allow Scots generally to judge the SNP on performance. They tended to assume they would always be better in government, local or national, than any of the Unionist parties. Despite an examination of SNP policy prior to 1979, showing the party to be more radical and conscious of social issues than Labour in Scotland, those who came to dominate the SNP under Alex Salmond, insisted the party must adopt a more left-wing policy platform. In time, the rhetoric was more evident than the reality.<br />
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The resignation of Angus Robertson as Deputy to Nicola Sturgeon, has opened up the opportunity to debate politics inside the SNP, something which has not been done since Alex Salmond became Leader in September 1990. The National of February 14th 2018, carried a piece by Alex Salmond, in which he said, "I always liked internal elections as they are good for debating issues. Deputy Leadership elections in the SNP have been quite significant and <b>in living memory the really significant one that I can remember was myself against Jim Fairlie in 1987 which was basically the classic face-off between the fundamentalists and the gradualists. It was an epic contest which was resolved in favour of gradualism and myself".</b> Perhaps significantly, Alec did not mention the even more epic contest which took place four years earlier over the question of the SNP's participation in the Scottish Convention. As Deputy Leader I had led two earlier SNP delegations to preliminary meetings of the Convention, in which it was established that none of the other participants - Unionist parties, TUs, Churches et al - recognised the sovereignty of the Scottish people.I had asked at the first meeting, and it was agreed, that the question of Scottish sovereignty should be on the agenda for the next meeting. It wasn't but I insisted on a roll-call vote, on the grounds that it would be difficult to determine what the Convention could achieve until it was decided who should be making the final decisions- the Scottish people or Westminster. Every single delegate from every institution present, except those from the SNP, opted for Westminster sovereignty.<br />
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The SNP Leader Gordon Wilson was a keen supporter of the Convention and had organised a resolution at the 1983 Annual Conference, to the effect that the SNP would play a full part in any Convention that was set up. I moved the direct negative and the resolution fell by a substantial majority. Gordon organised the same resolution for the next Annual Conference in 1984 at Inverness, but this time Jim Sillars carried the flag for the Convention and I again moved the direct negative, warning Delegates that the likely outcome, if they voted to support the Convention, would be to allow Scots to do no more than to talk about how little self-government Westminster would grant us. Jim and I debated the issue in front of hundreds of Delegates and the resolution to support the Convention was passed by only 7 votes, a clear indication of how divided the party was. There was no such division by January 1989 when the delegation of Gordon Wilson, Jim Sillars and Margaret Ewing advised the party to leave the Convention, when, as I had warned it would do, it refused to offer independence as an option. In effect, it demanded the SNP drop independence completely. At the National Council a few weeks later, the vote to leave was passed by 198 votes to 48. The two who had led the clarion call to support the Convention in 1984, Gordon Wilson and Jim Sillars, led the call to ditch it in 1989 and the SNP had wasted five years.<br />
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Alex Salmond is right in one respect, 1987 was a highly significant year for the Gradualists because their strategy lost the SNP Dundee East and Western Isles and turned what might have been a significant advance for the SNP into an utter shambles. Enter stage "Left", the idea of the "hung parliament" Salmond's brainchild and highlighted by him in his, "if Westminster is to hang, let it be by a Scottish rope" a catchy, if totally meaningless piece of political pap. A pact between SNP and Plaid Cymru, agreed to support Labour "in the event of a hung Parliament at Westminster", an idea touted for well over a year leading to the General Election of 1987. Margaret Thatcher had been painted as such a "hate figure" that keeping another Unionist party in power at Westminster and anti-Thatcherism, became the sole political aim for the SNP at that time. Some will have seen shades of the same "strategy" in 2017, when the SNP did their best to convince Scots the election "was NOT about independence". In the regular weekly column I wrote for the Scots Independent, I warned against the "hung parliament" scenario as far back as June 1986, when I wrote, "If the SNP continue to hype a hung Parliament, we will be making a present of that vote (anti-Tory vote) to the North British Labour and Unionist Party". That was only one of several warnings given about the lack of political nous over the next year and more in sadness than triumph, I wrote after the 1987 election, "Dundee East and Western Isles were sacrificed on the altar of anti-Thatcherism".<br />
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Was the "hung parliament" strategy in any way realistic, from the SNP's stand point? The UK Parliamentary figures tell their own story. In 1983 the General Election saw the Tories returned with a majority of 144 with each party polling as follows (Scot figs in brackets):- Tories 397 (21) Lab 209(41) Lib/Dems 23 (8) SNP 2. The bald figures alone show what a monumental task it would have been to create a "hung parliament" scenario but this was the period when Thatcher was in her pomp and Labour in England, offered no realistic opposition. The whole "hung parliament" idea showed an almost total lack of political awareness, given the strength of Labour in Scotland at that time. The polling figures for 1987 are as follows:- Tories 376 (-21) Lab (229 (+20) Lib/Dems (22 (-1) SNP 3 (+1) giving Tories a majority of 102. The Scottish figures show more clearly what a disaster for the SNP, the "hung parliament" strategy was, the voting figures being as follows:- Tories 10 (-11) Lab 50 (+9) Lib/Dems 9 (+1) SNP 3(+1). Labour's total gain of 20 seats in the UK, included 9 in Scotland, including two from the SNP. The party line became, "the election was a success as we increased our number of MPs by 50%" We had gone from having 2 MPs to 3 and it was in the atmosphere that this "success" had created, that Alec Salmond and I contested for the Deputy Leadership in September.<br />
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It is reasonable to assume that had the Salmond/Gradualist analysis been correct, the SNP would have enjoyed far more electoral success than it had prior to 1979, allowing for the internal strife that bedevilled the party throughout the 1980s and which ensured the party paid the electoral penalty. In October 1974 the SNP won 11 seats of 71 and 839,617 or 30.4% of the popular vote in the second General Election of that year. The party fought four General Elections under the leadership of Alex Salmond; 1992 where it won 3 of 72 Westminster seats and 629,564 or 21.5% of the popular vote; 1997 winning 6 of 72 seats and 621,550 or 22.1% of the vote. Under John Swinney's leadership 5 of 72 seats and 464,314 or 20.1% of the vote were won in 2001. During Alex Salmond's second ten year leadership term, the party won 6 of 59 seats and 412,267 or 17.7% of the vote in 2005; while in his final attempt the party won 6 of 59 seats and 491,386 or 19.9% of the vote in 2010. Thus, on the electoral platform favoured by the Gradualists, under the leadership of Alex Salmond, widely acclaimed as the foremost politician of his generation and highly successful on a personal level, in two General Elections the party polled 400,000 or 10%, less than it polled in October 1974 and in the other two it polled over 200,000 and 8% less than it had in 1974: and in the one election it fought under John Swinney it won 6 seats and 200,000 votes or 10% less. Over a period of 35 years, 1979-2014, the SNP was embroiled in internal disputes for a decade, then totally dominated by the self-styled Gradualist, left wing and where party discipline was ruthlessly imposed, success at the polls amounted to no better than 50% of the successes of 1974. More to the point, throughout that period independence rarely dominated SNP campaigns and on one occasion occupied 10th place in a list of the SNP's top ten priorities.<br />
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Much greater success has been achieved in Scottish Parliamentary elections, where a form of proportional representation has ensured the SNP has won the share of Parliamentary seats commensurate with the number of votes won. Without proportional representation, the party would have had only 7 of the 73 constituency seats in the Scottish Parliament as that was the number of constituencies won. but its share of the vote entitled it to another 28 of the remaining 56 seats, giving it a total of 35 out of 129. In 2003 under the leadership of John Swinney the number of constituencies won was still only 9 but topped up by another 18 to give a total of 27 out of 129, a reduction of 8 seats from 2003. The breakthrough came in 2007, with Alex Salmond back at the helm, the party won 21 of 73 constituency seats, with another 26 added under the top up, giving a total of 47 out of 129 making the SNP the largest party, forming a minority government. For the first time, in 2011 the party won a majority of the constituency seats - 53 of 73 - topped up to a total of 69 out of 129 and a majority government. But did being a majority government bring the prospect of independence any closer? The answer to that question must be a resounding "Yes". But has bringing the prospect of independence closer, made the SNP any more sure-footed, any more in command of the political situation in Scotland? The answer to that question, must be an equally resounding "No".<br />
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The atmosphere created by the campaign for the Independence Referendum has never been experienced in Scotland, either before the vote or since. It would perhaps be stretching it to suggest the vote could have been won, had it not been for the debacle of the SNP's insistence on a Currency Union with the rUK, but there is absolutely no doubt that the currency issue, more than any other single issue, lost the vote for the Yes side. Again, this was Alex Salmond's baby and the Yes side allowed itself to be bullied by the SNP, into supporting the CU as opposed to the argument supporting a Scottish currency. I have pushed the idea of a Scottish currency since the 1970's and the most galling part of the defeat for Yes, is to hear so many prominent members of the SNP, now claim they also supported the idea but remained loyal to the SNP's policy. It was put to me at the time, that the Scottish people had to be "persuaded and cajoled" to vote for Independence and, to push the idea of a Scottish currency would "frighten too many who would not want to take the chance". Who were the real fearties, the Gradualists in the SNP, or the Scottish people whose mettle the SNP refused to challenge? The other major issue which has divided the National Movement, is the SNP's total and absolute commitment to membership of the EU. I have written extensively on the EU in this series of Blogs and don't intend to rehearse the arguments here but the SNP refused to listen to how strongly many Independence supporters felt about membership of the EU. They treated those of us who voted Yes/Leave, with total disdain and contempt, paying the penalty at the poll in 2017.<br />
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The SNP is facing some of the same issues today, that split the party in the 1980's viz. the means by which Independence can be won, membership of the EU and the place the party should occupy on the political spectrum. Many of the self-styled left among the new recruits from the Labour Party, have no attachment to the cause of Independence and will return to the Labour fold if they feel there is any hope for Labour to form a government in Westminster - or when the SNP decide to run with another "hung parliament" scenario. It doesn't really help when the SNP Leader, along with some of the leading lights in the party, can't wait to decry Nationalism, claiming they support Independence because they reject the "Thatcherite neo-liberal, capitalist policies of the present Tory government" while endorsing the same neo-liberal, capitalist policies of the EU. Over one million Scots voted to leave the EU, we don't take kindly to being dismissed as racists. If the SNP continues to conflate Independence and membership of the EU, they will kill Independence. The Tories won 13 seats and 758,000 votes at the general election in 2017 for a reason. They cannot, indeed should not, simply be dismissed as "scum" without there being consequences. We cannot rebuild a Nation by treating people as if they are of no consequence.<br />
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The title of this piece is a straight quote from Alex Salmond - although I added the wee bit at the end. I hope it is not just another soundbite.<br />
<br />Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-80092190127833971362016-10-10T09:56:00.001-07:002016-10-10T09:56:24.359-07:00 THE SNP IS IN DANGER OF KILLING INDEPENDENCE!The confusion in the ranks of the National Movement over what constitutes "Independence", is such that the SNP and many of its supporters are in danger of killing the whole idea of returning independence and sovereignty to the Scottish people, the aim for which the party was created. When I read the headline in the Sunday Herald of 18th September; - First Minister: "Independence transcends Brexit, oil and the economy", I almost cheered, as it was the first time I had read any statement by Nicola Sturgeon which suggested she was a Nationalist. Oh, there have been any number of mentions of independence; the word trips off her tongue just as easily as any other word (s) in the SNP mantra. But what does she mean by it? In fact, what does the National Movement mean by "Independence", or is it just a word many proclaim without giving too much thought to what they mean by it? When I listen to the enthusiasm with which the SNP and its supporters embrace the EU, hear how many times the party's leaders, spokespeople and leading activists can contradict themselves in a single discussion or statement, I seriously wonder.<br />
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This is not the first time I have raised the issue and asked the question. In a previous Blog on 14 October 2014, entitled, "What do YES voters mean by Independence? Is it worth a candle"? I raised it in the aftermath of the Independence Referendum of September 18th, during which the debate over the currency an "independent" Scotland should use proved to be a turning point and is now widely accepted as the real Achilles heel of the YES argument. Unfortunately, there are still those, among the SNP leadership as well as ordinary voters, who still do not appreciate the nature of a currency union and what it would mean for "independence". But before looking at the conditions the UN requires to recognise an "independent" nation state, together with an academic, unbiased assessment of "independence" in the EU, It would be useful to look at a few examples of the confusion that exists in the ranks of those who claim to pursue Scottish independence.<br />
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In April 2013, under the auspices of Options for Scotland, I produced an article advocating a Scottish currency as the best option for an independent Scotland. The SNP were pushing the idea of a full blown Currency Union with the rUK, keeping the £ sterling and using the Bank of England as the Lender of Last Resort. My criticisms of the SNP policy were based on the lack of control Scotland would have over monetary policy and therefore, over the Scottish economy. A number of leading members of the YES Campaign, including Dennis Canavan the Chairman, publicly supported my arguments. Dennis was interviewed on TV and argued at some length, how important it would be for an independent Scotland to have control of its own currency and, therefore the economy. The interview went well until Dennis decided to elaborate, by stating the importance of having our own currency meant we would have the freedom to join the euro at a later date. Did he really understand the nature of a currency union?<br />
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Mr Canavan is not the only leading campaigner for independence who has trouble with the euro. On Thursday 13th, the first day of the SNP Annual Conference, the party will announce who will be the new Depute Leader of the party. Hustings have been held up and down the country for the past four weeks, as the four candidates have done their best to speak to as many party members as possible - out of the total of 120,000. Each is standing on a different platform, which they hope will impress the membership enough to see them elected. For the first time ever, all four candidates - Angus Robertson MP, current SNP leader in the House of Commons, Tommy Shepherd MP, Alyn Smith MEP and Councillor Chris McEleny - were interviewed together on TV, by Bernard Ponsonby. There was a remarkable degree of agreement on a variety of issues, with no major disagreements on anything, including the best currency option for an independent Scotland. All were agreed that independence had to come but membership of the EU was vital for Scotland, despite the UK, as a whole, having voted to come out. On the currency issue, all were agreed it had posed major difficulties in the Independence Referendum and all were agreed to say nothing more, not a squeak, not a cheep. Pushed by Bernard Ponsonby on the euro, all were agreed it was an option the party had to consider. None was prepared to say if he had a personal preference, not even to dismiss the idea of the euro. Thus, while they all agreed currency was the "big issue" at the last Referendum, that allowing the Scottish economy to be controlled by the Westminster Treasury and the Bank of England was a "big turn-off" for Scots who wanted independence, they were all prepared to see monetary policy and the Scottish economy controlled by the European Central Bank, the £ sterling replaced by the euro, as an "option", while still claiming it was independence.<br />
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Peter A Bell, writing as Berthan Pete, is one of the SNP's most active supporters, writing and blogging at length on every issue. On 10th August 2014, one of his critics, responding to one of Pete's posts, said the SNP was guilty of "dishonesty" attempting to pass off "fiscal autonomy" as independence. Mr Bell responded as follows, "By what authority do you seek to impose a rigid definition of independence? Where is it written that your absolute notion of independence is the only valid one?" He continued, "In an interconnected world, a much more reasonable and realistic definition of independence would be the capacity to <i style="font-weight: bold;">freely negotiate the terms on which a nation engages with the rest of the world. Under such a pragmatic definition, a freely negotiated currency union would not impinge on "true" independence at all."</i> As soon as it is accepted that we can each define our own version of independence, the concept is rendered meaningless. Bell's definition totally ignores the fact that membership of the EU, which he strongly supports, expressly forbids member states to negotiate any kind of trade deal with any country which is not a member. It also ignores that once the "freely negotiated" currency union is established, all "freedom" to manage currency and the economy is ended, along with "true" independence.<br />
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The following is perhaps an even better example of his utter confusion on the EU and independence. In The National of Saturday, October 1st 2016, he wrote, "<i style="font-weight: bold;">How long will we tolerate the British state continuing to withhold from the Scottish Parliament the powers that any other parliament would possess as a matter of right? How do Unionists justify this? How do they explain their preference for having immigration policy controlled by Westminster? If Scotland was independent, would they be urging us to take authority over immigration away from the parliament that the people of Scotland elect and hand it to a parliament in another country elected by the people of that country? Why should we remain in a union that no rational person would ever vote to join?"</i> Why indeed? Has Mr Bell overlooked, forgotten, failed to understand the conditions of membership of the Single Market in his and the SNP's beloved European Union? Has he overlooked, forgotten, misunderstood or just failed to understand, Free Movement of Labour in the EU? If he thinks Scottish control of immigration is so important, why is he so fervent in his support for the EU where members have no control over their borders and must permit free movement of people from other EU member states? Perhaps he is not a rational person?<br />
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One of the reasons I raise the issue again is the SNP annual conference meets on Thursday 13th and the First Minister is under pressure to a) hold a second independence referendum b) postpone holding a second independence referendum (kick it into the long, long grass c) at least say when she is likely to consider holding a second independence referendum. Party leaders are said to be split with some like Tommy Shepherd MP urging postponement and ex-Minister Alex Neil advocating grasping the new powers offered as it would be "neo independence". There are others who fear Nicola Sturgeon's natural caution will cause her to miss the boat and fail to capitalise on the alleged "mood" in Scotland that favours independence, particularly in light of the decision of the people of England and Wales to vote to leave the EU and the perceived xenophobic tone of Tory Ministers at their recent conference. Sturgeon's problems however, are not confined to deciding when to call for a second independence referendum; her biggest problem is there is no settled notion of what the SNP's version of independence would mean. Her first major mistake was to tie holding a second independence referendum to the result of the EU referendum stating that <b><i>IF</i></b> Scotland voted to stay in the EU while the rest of the UK voted to leave, a second independence referendum would be inevitable. Why should there be an "<i style="font-weight: bold;">IF</i>" to holding a second independence referendum? Why tie the "<i style="font-weight: bold;">IF</i>" to membership of the EU, which now means Scots are not being given a choice of independence, but rather a choice between two unions, in neither of which would Scotland be independent.<br />
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Despite the warnings that have been given about the dangers of tying independence to EU membership, the SNP is to debate independence at its conference this month - tied to membership of the EU. The wording of the resolution is, "If no viable solution to safeguard our membership as part of the UK exists, Scotland should prepare for a second independence referendum <i style="font-weight: bold;">and seek to remain in Europe as an independent country." </i>Of course the party means the EU and not Europe and is obviously quite prepared to ignore the one million, eighteen thousand, three hundred and twenty two (1,018,322) Scots who voted to Leave the EU. How many will be prepared to stand logic on its head, as the SNP is doing, and vote Yes, is anyone's guess but the party is making the wrong choice again and, if it pursues this course will run the risk of dividing the National Movement and kill the vote for independence.<br />
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When Mhairi Black MP made her maiden speech in Westminster she said, "the demand for independence in Scotland has nothing to do with Nationalism, it is based on a rejection of the neo-liberal, Thatcherite policies of this Tory government." She condemns the current Tory government, stating its mask has slipped "to reveal the xenophobic, often racist, <i style="font-weight: bold;">nationalist</i>, ugly face beneath." Like many others in the SNP, Ms Black goes out of her way to eschew Nationalism and in her regular column in The National on Saturday October 8th, she said, "I have never identified with the word "nationalist"..and what irritates me most is I am automatically labelled as such because I am in the SNP. I believe in independence for purely practical reasons...I want Scotland<i style="font-weight: bold;"> to have total control and power over its own policies, government and direction of travel" </i>Although she absolves the SNP of displaying any of the nastier traits the self-styled Left tend to equate with Nationalism, as a political scientist she should know that Nationalism is not a synonym for racism, chauvinism, imperialism or xenophobia but her confusion does not stop there, she is also an ardent supporter of the EU where the one thing Scotland will not have is "total control and power over its own policies" and her socialism will be sacrificed on the altar of "neo-liberal", international capitalism.<br />
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Ms Black is not the only prominent member of the SNP who puts the pursuit of class politics before the pursuit of the re-establishment of the Scottish nation state and one wonders if the kind of society which she hopes to see in Scotland could be established in the UK, would she still favour Scottish independence? Listening to the rhetoric, it would seem to be unlikely and there are a great many of the newer members of the SNP fall into the same category. The mystery is why they are prepared to write off the entire population of the rest of the UK as beyond redemption but are falling over themselves to embrace the people of the EU as fellow travellers, when the entire history of the member states of the EU shows a far greater tendency to embrace right wing politics, than has ever been shown by the people of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. One also wonders what would happen if there was any possibility of a pact with Corbyn's Labour Party. Unless the SNP can show why independence is in Scotland's best interests, including the 400,000 Scots who tend to vote Tory, how many of the current advocates of independence will still be there if Labour can work some kind of miracle and become an attractive prospect again?<br />
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It is said that if a politician can't ride two horses at the same time, they shouldn't be in the circus. At the moment the SNP is a circus, with its members running in more than two opposite directions. Nicola Sturgeon has her work cut out.<br />
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<br />Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-67884198826692688812016-07-17T15:53:00.000-07:002016-07-17T15:53:34.090-07:00Who Will Speak For The 1,018,322 Scots Who Voted "Leave"?Few would disagree that the EU Referendum debate was a disgrace, littered with exaggeration, scare-mongering, distortion and lies but despite countless pleas from those who, in the main, were mere bystanders, that participants from both sides should treat the electorate with more respect, the distortions continue. Enraged that the majority of the UK electorate who voted, voted to leave the EU, leading players on the Remain side still blame Brexit for every fall in share prices, figures for consumer consumption and predictions of economic mayhem 20 years from now. George Osborne, before his removal as Chancellor, had concluded in light of Brexit, he could no longer stick to his promise that he would have wiped out UK's deficit by 2020. His statement had nothing, of course, to do with the fact that he was unlikely to hit that target in any case. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, stated he would reduce interest rates, in anticipation of the economic slump he predicted would happen if the UK voted to leave the EU. Having set up the markets to expect a cut of 0.25% in interest rates on Thursday 14th July, the MPC voted by 8 to 1 to leave the rate at 0.5%. Sterling has already fallen by approximately 10% against the $ and a cut in interest rates would drop it further, so it has been postponed meantime. Next month is being flagged up as the next opportunity to effect the cut, unless Carney changes his mind again. Someone who was confidently predicting the economic consequences of Brexit for years ahead, has failed to read the markets twice in four weeks.<br />
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The blame game will continue, the scare-mongering will continue and the demonstrations to have the decision to leave overturned, will continue, accompanied by surveys showing an increasing number of people who voted Leave, who, it is alleged, have now changed their minds. It is the customary reaction of the europhiles and euro-fanatics when a referendum goes against them, as happened in Eire and Denmark, and we can be sure there will be plenty of EU funds made available to keep the campaign going. Allied to that, will be the constant repetition of the charge that those who voted Leave were "misled", "lied to" or "didn't know what they were voting for". It seems the Remainers, particularly those in Scotland, have learned nothing, absolutely nothing, about the reasons many people in Scotland voted Leave. If they did learn anything of the reasons people voted to Leave, they have chosen to ignore them while continuing to paint a completely false and quite insulting picture of the kind of campaign which the Leave side conducted in Scotland.<br />
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The National (Sat: July 2) carried a letter from a Spaniard, currently living in Dundee, while expressing her deep despair at the UK result opined, "<i>the result was a victory for ignorance and xenophobia".."the result was misled by populism and misinformation"...</i>the referendum.<i>.."rather than an exercise in popular sovereignty"..it has been.."a symptom of the British people's endemic ignorance...and in many cases of a deep underlying hate for the foreign". </i>Obviously not a fan of irony, she continued,...<i>"I have been insulted countless times these past few months by a considerable proportion of the population of Great Britain". </i>Alyn Smith, SNP MEP, in his heart-rending, lachrymose appeal to the EU Parliament, to allow Scotland to remain as a member, implored it "not to let Scotland down, as Scotland did not let the EU down". He wanted to tell the EU that, "<i>UKIP does not speak for us". </i>By his own estimation he gave the "speech of his life" pointing out he wanted "his country to be internationalist, cooperative, ecological, fair, European", as if being outside the EU prevented us from being any of those. Of course there was no mention of the more than one million of us who voted to Leave, nor that there might, just might, be reasons other than racism - like sovereignty for instance - that accounted for that sizeable vote. That would probably have been too much to expect, given the SNP sees no need for substantial change to the structure of the EU, believing that other than the odd unspecified tweak here and there, the structure is just fine.<br />
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The "little England", "isolationist", "xenophobic" sneers still run like a thread through the complaints of the Remainers, at the result of the vote but I have to admit, some of the hysteria actually makes me laugh. On one televised Remain march in opposition to the referendum result, there were some placards which proclaimed, "Internationalism-I am a Scots European" (like African American). There is a Common External Tariff around the 28 member states of the EU, which discriminates against the countries of the rest of the world and members are denied the freedom to negotiate trade deals on their own behalf, with countries outwith the EU. The Common Agricultural Policy has long been condemned for discriminating against countries of the developing world, denying them access to the EU and despite recent reforms many of the criticisms persist. Terminology like "Scots European" implies a EU state, which is supra-nationalism not internationalism. The Sunday Herald (Sun: July 3) had a Leader which was truly cringe-worthy in its attempt to proclaim Scotland's historical European credentials. "Scots are citizens of the European Union" it thundered (is there any other trading union bestows "citizenship" on its members?)...it is a "democratic abomination "..."Scots forced out of Europe" (not the EU). "Scots..been outward-looking European nation since 16th century" - the Auld Alliance actually dates from 1295. And, if any other proof was needed, "braw" comes from Swedish, "kirk" from Dutch and "ken" from German. Help ma boab, wha wid ae thocht? This surely ranks with George Bush's, "The problem with the French is they don't have a word for entrepreneur" No mention of the English language, much of which has its roots in Latin and which has borrowed extensively from French, but that might have suggested that "Little England" was also a "European nation" - God forbid.<br />
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The title of this piece is a serious question and when I tweeted, "If the 2IndyRef includes the SNP devotion to the EU, it will split the Nationalist movement"- I meant it. It received the usual replies from the usual suspects, most of whom completely missed the point. Of the 1,018,322 who voted Leave or 38% of the total vote, an estimated 440,000 were regular SNP supporters. It is not only grossly insulting to suggest that number of Scots electors voted to leave the EU on the grounds of "ignorance and xenophobia", it is sheer bloody stupidity, a level of stupidity we see unfortunately on social media daily. Immigration was not an issue in Scotland, nor in much of the rest of the UK I suspect, unless people want to claim the bulk of the UK population is racist. I wrote my first piece against Scotland seeking membership of the Common Market for the Scots Independent in 1968. Why? - because I had read the Treaty of Rome which laid out the aims very clearly - "ever closer political union". I actually understood what that meant and in the intervening years, during which I have corresponded with academics who shared my views on the Common Market/EEC/EU/Euro, from Eire, Austria, Norway, Greece, France and several other countries, I have seen nothing in the development of the EU to lessen my opposition. I left the SNP, after 35 years membership, in December 1990 because I disagreed fundamentally with its uncritical commitment to the EU, and I could no longer give the party the loyalty it required from a senior member. The EU has developed in exactly the way I predicted it would. There is nothing very special about that, hundreds of other SNP members made the same predictions, as did tens of thousands of people throughout the member states. The only people I know, who believe a country can be a member of the EU and retain its independence, are members of the SNP.<br />
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Several commentators, myself included, have suggested the size of the Remain vote in Scotland had much to do with Yes supporters' loyalty to the SNP, notwithstanding the 440,000 who voted Leave. There has never been the level of devotion to the EU in Scotland, as has been suggested by the SNP leadership and, if the SNP continues to trumpet its devotion to a political union, which will shortly be just as incorporating as the UK, it will lose the 2IndyRef so many Yes supporters so desperately want. It has consistently ignored making any kind of political argument for Scots joining the EU (<i style="font-weight: bold;">If Sovereignty is in the DNA of the SNP, Why surrender it to the EU-</i>jimfairlie.blogspot.com) eg. what are the political advantages for Scotland in allowing EU law to supersede Scots law, given the defence of the separate Scottish legal system that has been mounted since 1707? The arguments in favour of Remain, as presented by the SNP, have been mainly economic (<i style="font-weight: bold;">Economics of The EU</i>-jimfairlie.blogspot.com) and the economic case just does not stack up eg. Scots' exports to rUK are worth four times the value of Scots' exports to the EU. The UK has serious economic problems and an imbalance in the economy, with London domination of the rest of the country now at an unhealthy and totally unsustainable level. That said however, unemployment in the UK at 5%, is half of the average level of 10.2% in the EU, where just over 22 million people are unemployed. The average figure however hides the most serious levels of Spain 21% and Greece - 24%, while 60% of Italy's 11.3% unemployed have been without work for over one year, a fate shared by 70% of Greek unemployed.<br />
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Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize winning economist, has said, "the euro is at the root of many of Europe's problems" and "the currency was flawed at birth". He has also said the EU is in danger of falling apart. Now that the UK has decided to leave, the EU has to make one of two choices, it can INTEGRATE further or, it can DISINTEGRATE. Having travelled so far down the road of political integration, the dominant EU elite will do all it can to complete the integration, thus achieving the original aim of a country called Europe. The arguments about introducing fiscal integration in the eurozone have raged for years and many see that integration as the only way to deal with the damage already caused to the economies of Southern Europe. Until the European Central Bank can control the spending and budgets of the weaker members of the eurozone, those members will be a continuous source of difficulty. The determination of the ECB and Germany to prevent the Italian government from releasing the pressure on Italian banks, which would involve breaking EU rules on government subsidy, suggest the pressure to integrate is already underway. Only days ago, the German defence minister said that now that the UK had gone, Germany and France could move ahead with plans for greater military cooperation. With the political and economic integration that has already taken place, together with the recent evidence of pressure to further integrate, the SNP argument that Scotland in the EU would be there as an equal, sovereign and independent state, is just so much nonsense.<br />
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Whenever a 2IndyRef is held Scots will be faced with a choice of two political unions, in neither of which will Scotland be independent. The SNP will continue with its campaign for continued membership of the EU, on the false premise that Scotland will be independent and an equal partner. Unfortunately, a great many life-long, traditional Scottish Nationalists, myself included, will be forced to choose the present Union with the rUK, for the following reasons.<br />
1) Opposition to the EU has always been based on the loss of sovereignty. The current situation, the austerity and mass unemployment forced on the countries of Southern Europe, confirms that loss more than at any previous period.<br />
2) To choose the EU will divide the National Movement, with those Yes supporters whose devotion to the EU is unlikely to change, ranged against Traditional nationalists who see the EU as another incorporating political union.<br />
3) No Westminster government could play the Project Fear card a second time, and hope to have the same effect. With the majority of the people of England and Wales having voted to leave the EU, any argument in opposition to Scotland leaving the UK must be weakened.<br />
4) The National Movement will be completely united. I don't know a single Nationalist who would choose to stay in the UK on a permanent basis, whereas many Yes supporters and the leadership of the SNP have already chosen the EU.<br />
5) For the reasons listed above I believe it will be easier to break away from the rUK, at a later date.<br />
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In the title of this piece I asked, " Who Will Speak For The 1,018,322 Scots Who Voted Leave"? To date the answer has been "No one". Hopefully that will change.<br />
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<br />Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-82612873679777525642016-05-31T04:03:00.001-07:002016-05-31T04:05:43.573-07:00Economics of EU<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b><u>"Hold Your Nose And Vote Remain" Aye Right</u></b></div>
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Having almost totally ignored the politics of the EU, particularly the question of sovereignty, the Referendum campaign has been dominated by the so-called economics of what will happen if we stay in the EU or leave the EU. Unfortunately, the distortions and downright lies have left most people more confused than ever. I spent fourteen years teaching economics and then more than thirty years in the financial services industry. I don't believe economics has earned the title of "the dismal science" nor do I believe that if we laid all the economists in the world end to end, they still wouldn't come to a conclusion, but unfortunately it can lend itself to being misused and distorted by those who seek personal advantage by doing so. Before looking in detail at the Scottish economy and its interaction with the EU, it is as well to highlight certain claims which are made daily and which are presented as self-evident truths which are not to be questioned.</div>
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<b>1. <u>Economic forecasting</u></b></div>
The most important thing to remember about economic forecast models is that forecasts are based on assumptions and, that given certain circumstances, some of which may be totally unrealistic, there will be a series of outcomes. It is not an exact science because if the assumptions are changed, the outcomes will also change. Indeed, models can produce required outcomes providing the proper assumptions are made. Change the assumptions and the outcomes will also change. No economics lecturer worth his/her salt, would ever begin a lecture without the classic, "assume ceteris paribus" or "all other things remaining equal". In other words, when the Treasury made the prediction that by 2030, every family in the UK would be £4,300 per annum worse off, if we left the EU, what they did not explain, was that this depended on their assumptions AND that whatever shocks may visit the economy during that period, the authorities would effect no change in policy. Of course that is totally unrealistic, as is the claim that forecasts of economic outcomes in fourteen years from now can possibly be accurate. Even more ludicrous was Alistair Darling's prediction that for those children born between 2012 and 2014, there would be a loss of £145,820 over their lifetime (75 years perhaps?) if we left the EU. When Chancellor he could not forecast interest rates six months ahead.<br />
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We could perhaps be more sympathetic to those who are prepared to swallow this piffle, if the Treasury, the CBI, the IMF, the Office for Budget Responsibility and the Institute for Fiscal Studies all had exemplary records for accurate economic forecasting - but they don't. A little over a month ago the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast a 2015-2016 budget deficit of £72.4 bn. Less than four WEEKS later the actual figure was £74 bn - a £1.6 bn under-estimate over less than four weeks. In 1989 the Treasury "Red Book" predicted that three years later 1992-1993, the government would have a small surplus. In the event, it carried the largest peacetime deficit on record. All of the above august bodies and the SNP, clamoured for the UK to join the Exchange Rate Mechanism, which Margaret Thatcher finally did in October 1990. At the SNP's annual conference the year before, the SNP debated a resolution calling on the Tory government to join the ERM. I was totally opposed because I knew it was the first step towards a single currency but, knowing that asking Conference to reject the motion would fail, I successfully moved an amendment to the effect that the SNP would oppose any move towards a single currency. Within two years, the strain of keeping the UK in the ERM caused major problems, including raising interest rates to 15% on 15th September 1992. Despite appeals from the above named organisations to remain in, accompanied by dire warnings of the consequences if the UK left the ERM, Chancellor Norman Lamont was forced to take the UK out of the ERM the next day, 16th September 1992.<br />
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Instead of the catastrophe predicted, the FTSE jumped 130 points the next day and by a total of 8% in the first two days after leaving the ERM which survived only another eighteen months before collapsing completely. The next decade or more was one of almost uninterrupted economic growth for the UK. As a IFA, I managed a great deal of clients' money, much of it invested in equities. For some months before the crash of 2008, I began to feel rather twitchy about the markets. Suddenly the money for mortgages began to be less available, there was a slowing down of what had been an unsustainable rise in house prices, certain funds began to look a bit wobbly. I spoke to a number of clients about taking them out of equities, which we did, thereby saving them a great deal of money when the markets crashed. None of the organisations above saw the crash coming, or if they did, they did nothing about it, no warnings were given, no attempts made to soften the blow. Given their track record - and the few incidents outlined only scratches the surface of their failures - why should we listen to them now, as they regale us with their forecasts of tragedy if we leave the EU?<br />
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<b>2. <u>EU Funding Of Scottish Projects</u></b></div>
Get into a discussion with any Scottish Nationalist or SNP supporter about how much Scotland is subsidised by the English taxpayer and how impossible it would be for Scotland to afford to be independent and maintain its current standard of living, and you will have a fight on your hands. To traditional Nationalists, the economics are irrelevant but even the economic Nationalists will argue till the kye come hame, that Scotland has the potential to be a prosperous country, well able to provide a decent society, with or without oil. Their reaction to the charge that Scotland cannot afford to be independent, is open derision and frequently, hostility. For some strange reason, when it comes to membership of the EU, the SNP and its supporters adopt the same position as Unionists did in the Referendum on Scottish Independence. Whereas it was argued that Scotland could break up a Union that had lasted for over 300 years, with little or no problem anent trade, currency and so on; leaving the EU - after membership of just over 40 years - will cause absolute mayhem. According to the SNP, over 336,000 Scottish jobs depend on trade with the EU. While it is not specifically stated, the suggestion is there, that to leave the EU would mean the loss of both trade AND the jobs. When that very same argument was made by Unionists during the Scottish referendum, the SNP and independence supporters quite rightly dismissed it as utter tripe.<br />
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The Spice Report of 15th October 2015, entitled "<b>The Impact of EU Membership on Scotland"</b>, notes that the Scottish Government claims over 336,000 Scots jobs are directly linked to trade with the EU. Several times over recent weeks, as the referendum campaign has gathered momentum, Scottish Government representatives and other Remain campaigners, have stated quite bluntly that in the event of the UK - as a whole - voting to leave the EU, those jobs would be in danger of being lost. Whether or not that would be likely will be looked at below, but the first thing to note is that the Spice Report differs quite radically, in its estimates of Scots jobs linked to EU trade, from the estimates made by the SNP and Remain, of the number of Scots jobs which are linked to trade with the EU. Spice calculates that the number of Scots jobs which can be directly linked to trade with the EU, is 81,000, a figure which almost doubles to 150,000 when the multiplier effect is taken into consideration and jobs indirectly linked, are also included. That is fewer than half the total of the Scottish Government's calculations and the very least that needs to be done, is a comparison of the methodology employed by both parties .<br />
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As well as the implied threat of lost jobs if Scotland left the EU, there is the threat of lost funding We are all familiar with the signs which now appear all over Scotland, "Funded by the EU", which suggests that not only are Scots subsidised by England, which the SNP and independence supporters vehemently deny, we are also subsidised by the EU, which the SNP and independence supporters see as something for which Scots should be grateful. While the SNP can produce figures for Scottish contributions to the UK Treasury, in order to boost their case for independence, they are strangely reluctant to discuss or state Scotland's contribution to the EU. They have a great deal to say about what funds are provided by the EU in terms of research at Scottish universities, or how much Scottish farmers depend on EU funds for their annual subsidies, without ever mentioning Scotland's contribution to the EU. In the SNP's EU Website the party claims that Scotland's Net contribution to the EU is £8 per head per annum, but the value of investment from EU companies is worth £1,225 per head. In The National of May 27th 2016, the CEO of Business for Scotland claims that for every £1 Scotland contributes to the EU, we get £20 back. Neither the SNP nor the CEO explain how they arrived at those figures but it is suspiciously similar to the way The Treasury managed to conclude every person in the UK would be £4,300 worse off by 2030 if we left the EU and that calculation was greeted with derision right across the board. Even in its heyday in its relationship with the EU, Eire managed to get only £6 for every £1 spent. The Spice Report shows that between 2007 and 2013, Scotland made a NET contribution to the EU of £1.6 billion. In other words, just to avoid confusion, Scotland paid £1.6 billion more to the EU than we got back.<br />
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The claims which have been made by the Remain campaign, on the economic consequences of Brexit have now become so ludicrous, that the bulk of their claims are now simply dismissed by an electorate totally scunnered by the entire charade. The SNP insists they want nothing to do with the Tory-led campaign to Remain, preferring to make what they have deemed to be "the positive, progressive case" for staying in the EU. Unfortunately, there has been little or no evidence of it as we have yet to hear from the SNP, any political case, let alone a positive political case for surrendering sovereignty to a political union which all agree is centralist, undemocratic and corrupt. Despite claiming the EU badly needs reform, the SNP's ambitions for reform are so minimal they could be introduced without Treaty change, which the SNP sees as neither "advisable nor desirable". The SNP website also claims "just under half -42%- of Scotland's trade was with the EU in 2014, which amounted to £11.6 billion in cash terms". It must be the first time that 42% of something has been described as "just under half" of the whole. It should also be noted that only 42% of Scottish trade was conducted with the EU in 2014 worth £11.6 billion, whereas Fig 3 shows that 46% of trade worth £12.9 billion was conducted in 2013. The downward trend of Scottish trade with the EU is therefore continuing and, if the current problems in the Eurozone in particular and the EU generally, are not successfully addressed, that downward trend will continue, whether or not we stay in. Only ten of the EU members accounted for over 90% of the EU's trade with Scotland in 2014 and eight of those ten, are in the Eurozone (see Fig3).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9GKvr9nks65jZgjwkJp0mGjQzBpBbRBSsJScamx8kvxcyWpxKa9BOYaQ3qrs-D2eJm2oFC-VyI46JceCDf1U_jD0eqgCDfH0UCCdbAnFNPXW4qQNGOHoyr5WPRXQtdwsdNWYf5XBep0wL/s1600/EU+timeline+2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9GKvr9nks65jZgjwkJp0mGjQzBpBbRBSsJScamx8kvxcyWpxKa9BOYaQ3qrs-D2eJm2oFC-VyI46JceCDf1U_jD0eqgCDfH0UCCdbAnFNPXW4qQNGOHoyr5WPRXQtdwsdNWYf5XBep0wL/s640/EU+timeline+2.PNG" width="569" /></a><br />
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We are reminded daily that the EU is a market of over 500 million people, but over 90% of Scotland's trade with the EU is conducted with approximately half of that number and the economic conditions which exist in the countries which make up the other half, don't offer much hope of any increase in trade any time soon. In fact, those who intend to vote Remain because they fear taking a "leap in the dark" by voting Leave, will find that staying in constitutes an even bigger leap in the dark because the EU has no idea of how it will repair the damage which has been done by the austerity policies forced on the Eurozone members.<br />
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<b><u>Unemployment in the EU.</u></b><br />
For trade to take place between countries, there has to be a long term balance between trading partners, each of which has to be able to bring something to the table. In the long term a balance has to be struck so that one trading partner is not constantly disadvantaged. In a large trading block like the EU, most members will have a surplus with some members and a deficit with others but in the EU, 24 of the 27 other member states have a trading surplus with the UK, with a similar pattern with Scotland. Thus, trading advantage is very much with the other member states, which is another reason they cannot afford to stop trading if we leave. As trading in services has advanced very little in the EU, 94% of Scotland's insurance products are sold in the rest of the UK, therefore the threats of what might happen to Scotland's financial sector are largely unfounded.<br />
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It is always possible to change trading patterns if a country suffers from a long-term trading imbalance or disadvantage and the balance of payments includes trade in "invisibles" ie services such as financial products. A trade imbalance can therefore be countered by trade in invisibles, which has been the situation in the UK for generations. However, when trade in services is restricted as it is in the EU, new trading partners have to be found, which is exactly what has been happening in Scotland as well as the UK as a whole. Fig 3 shows how the long term trend has been for trade with the EU to diminish over time and while Scotland shows an increase in trade with the EU between 2012 and 2013, the figure for 2014 shows trade with the EU had fallen to 42%. Remain tell us that as we have access to a market of over 500 million, it has to be in our interest to stay but it has already been shown the reality is that only 10 countries, with just under half of that 500 million, take 90% of Scotland's trade. For that to change the economies of the EU members will have to improve.<br />
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At the end of 2015 unemployment in the 28 members of the EU was 9.1%, the lowest level since July 2009, while in the Eurozone it was 10.5%, the lowest level since October 2011. Unemployment in the UK in the same period was 5.1% and 5% in the USA. This means that in the EU28, there were 22.16 million people unemployed, 16.935 million of them in the Eurozone (eurostat Jan 2016). Unfortunately, the average figures disguise the real nature of unemployment in the EU, with 14 states with levels over 8.3%, with seven of those with rates from 9% - 12.5% and Croatia - 15.1%, Spain - 21.4% and Greece 24%. Over 60% of Italy's 11.3% unemployed, have been without work for over one year while 70% of Greece's unemployed have shared the same fate. We hear a great deal of the opportunities the EU offers to Scotland's youth (under 25) but it has been noted above, the relatively small number of Scottish students studying in the EU. Unemployment levels for the under 25 age group in the EU, suggest that opportunities for Scotland's young people will also be limited. Youth unemployment in EU28 averaged 20% or 4.6 million, of which 3.2 million or 22.5% were in the Eurozone. Averages again hide the worst cases of Italy - 38%, Croatia - 45%, Spain - 47.5% and Greece - 49.5%.<br />
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When it can be shown that perhaps the EU is not quite the land of milk and honey that the propaganda suggests, Remain, the SNP and their supporters take refuge in the claim we need the EU to protect us from the dastardly Tories, who it seems, are set to govern in the UK for all eternity. The claim is that if it were not for the EU, workers' and women's rights would be abolished by the Tories, as an act of revenge and to please their neo-liberal financial backers and, of course, if it were not for the EU, those rights would not have existed in the first place. Not surprisingly, they have little or nothing to say about the way workers' and women's rights were trampled over in Greece, Eire, Spain and Portugal or the riots which have taken place in France, Belgium and other member states to stop their governments abolishing some of those rights. All we hear from the self-styled, alleged "Left" is, "Hold your nose and vote Remain".<br />
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Conscious that this is beginning to run on a bit, I will examine the possible consequences of coming out of the EU, with possible alternatives for when we are out, in the next instalment. However, just for the record:- <b>Right to Holiday Pay</b> was introduced in the UK under the Holiday Pay Act of 1938. UK workers have a right to 5.6 weeks holiday, in the EU it is 4 weeks. <b>Maternity Leave:-</b> UK law provides for 52 weeks, the second highest in the EU, where the minimum is 14 weeks. <b>Maternity Pay:-</b> the EU does not give pregnant women any minimum pay level during maternity leave. UK provides 90% of pay for 6 weeks and £140 pw for the next 33 weeks. <b>Equal Pay:- </b>UK introduced equal pay in 1970, before we joined the EU. <b>Discrimination:- </b>UK introduced race discrimination 1965, sex discrimination 1975, before the EU. <b>Wages:- </b>EU has no minimum wage law and only 18 members out of 28 have a minimum wage. UK has one of the highest minimum wages in the world.<br />
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<b>ENDS</b><br />
<br />Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-90384227729030478712016-05-14T16:52:00.000-07:002016-05-14T16:52:27.652-07:00If Sovereignty is in DNA of SNP, Why surrender it to EU?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
The following article is the first of two, perhaps three, on the EU Referendum which will take place on June 23, 2016. Although almost every argument presented so far, particularly by the Remain side, is concerned with economics and jobs, the EU is first and foremost a political organisation. Walter Hallstein, the EU's first President put it this way, "..we are a political - not an economic - enterprise. The Common Market has the goal of unifying Europe politically." The first paper deals therefore, with the politics of the EU, to be followed by a paper dealing with the economics, although there will be an element of overlap in both papers.</div>
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"The sovereignty of the Scottish people is in our DNA", Alex Salmond, SNP conference March 23 2013. That is a great one-liner but is that all it really is - a one-liner? Sovereignty belongs to the Scottish people, not to Westminster or any other legislature, has been the mantra of the SNP since the party was formed. It is still quoted regularly by committed Nationalists, but is that as far as it goes for traditional Nationalists, as well as the SNP leadership? These are not idle questions. We face having to choose to either stay in the EU or come out on June 23; it is a vote some of us have longed for, for over forty years. The main issue should be sovereignty because from sovereignty, all else flows. A country which is not sovereign, controls neither its politics nor its economics but unfortunately, the EU referendum campaign is simply a re-run of the Scottish Independence referendum campaign, with threats of what will happen to the UK if it votes to leave the EU, becoming wilder and more nonsensical by the day.</div>
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While this is a UK referendum, the situation in Scotland is further complicated by the policy position adopted by the SNP, currently the party of government in the Scottish Parliament and, winner of 56 of Scotland's 59 seats in the Westminster or UK Parliament. Although the popularity of the SNP did not give it the expected overall majority in the Scottish Parliament in the recent elections, it still polled more of the popular constituency vote than the Labour and Tory parties combined. Despite that, votes for the Union of the UK were over 100,000 higher than the total vote for independence and the SNP were only two seats short of an overall majority in the Parliament. For that reason, the SNP's total commitment to membership of the EU is more important than the policy of any other Scottish party, particularly as it is riddled with contradictions which are largely ignored by many Yes supporters who are prepared to follow the party line in seeking to leave the rUK while at the same time, supporting membership of another political union, the EU. There will be many Scots who support other Scottish parties or no party, who will want to leave the EU but, I strongly believe that the size of the pro-EU vote in Scotland, as recorded in successive opinion polls, has more to do with the popularity of the SNP, as opposed to the popularity of the EU. In fact, social media has shown that many who will vote to stay in the EU, are doing so in the expectation that England will vote overwhelmingly to leave, Scotland will vote equally overwhelmingly to stay and, a second Independence Referendum will follow. Shallow as it is, this analysis is no more shallow than much of the analysis on which the SNP has depended to arrive at its current policy on the EU - "Independence in Europe" - a classic oxymoron.</div>
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<b><u>Sovereignty</u></b></div>
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If "Sovereignty of the People" genuinely matters, as the SNP and many Yes supporters claim it does, the SNP is duty bound to explain to the Scottish people why it is in their interests to surrender sovereignty to the extent that is required for membership of the EU. The party leadership contends sovereignty is not surrendered but "shared" or "pooled" but a nation can no more be a wee bit sovereign than a woman can be a wee bit pregnant. We are either sovereign or we are not and those who are in favour of membership of the EU, where they argue we would be independent, but oppose membership of the UK, where they claim we are not independent, find it difficult to explain the difference. In 2001, Kenny MacAskill in his "Euro Route to Independence" said, "Leave aside spurious nonsense about <b><i>surrendering sovereignty</i></b> to Frankfurt rather than London, as Scotland has no independence to sell" (my italics). He went on, "The inclusivity and opportunities of Europe and the euro, can overshadow the <i style="font-weight: bold;">exclusivity and isolation</i> of independence" Warming to his task of selling the 'benefits' of the euro, he went on, "..the economic arguments are substantial and the political case overwhelming", offering Scotland "an opportunity to actively and positively sell independence within Europe". That one of the leaders of a party which is supposed to have "independence" as its raison d'etre and "sovereignty in its DNA", could make such a ludicrous claim unchallenged by the party members, said a great deal about the SNP's concept of independence.</div>
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We expect our governments to have not only an understanding of how the economic system works, but also an ability to anticipate the potential hazards. At the very least, we expect them to have advisers with those abilities, both of which were obviously lacking in Mr MacAskill's case. Did anything change in the economic thinking of the SNP leadership after the financial crisis of 2008? One major change was the decision to keep the pound sterling as the currency of an "independent" Scotland, rather than the euro, and to have the Bank of England as the "lender of last resort" rather than the European Central Bank. Unfortunately this was announced without first seeking the prior agreement of the UK government, leading to the utter shambles of the currency policy in the Independence Referendum. At the time, there was little indication that the SNP leadership had any greater understanding of either the euro or any kind of monetary union. On December 14, 2011, Alex Salmond lambasted David Cameron for refusing to sign up to the agreement arrived at by the other members of the EU, with the exception of Hungary, which called for austerity and fiscal discipline in order to "solve" the currency crisis. Salmond called Cameron's refusal, "irresponsible posturing that will damage Scotland's fishing industry and cost jobs". That Cameron's refusal could damage Scotland's fishing industry any more than the EU had already done, was risible enough, but Salmond was arguing in favour of a treaty which called for central control of member states' budgets. So much for "Independence in Europe". Alyn Smith, SNP MEP went even further claiming, "This deal tonight has been good news for the eurozone, good news for the EU and it is appalling news for the UK. The eurozone is getting its act together" Asked by BBC Scotland if the SNP was still in favour of joining the euro, Smith claimed, "Give it six months and the UK will be sinking a lot faster than the eurozone". How much more wrong could he have been?</div>
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It would seem that the current SNP leadership's notion of sovereignty differs quite radically from the following. Sovereignty is not simply an abstract concept, it has practical applications. A claim to sovereignty is a claim by some representative authority in the name of "the people" to exercise a monopoly of law-making and law-enforcement within a designated territory. In an increasingly interdependent world, sovereign states have accepted specific treaty limitations on their law-making rights. But the EU goes further by requiring member states to cede a general right of law-making on a permanent basis, to EU institutions. Sovereignty is a legal as well as a philosophical way of describing the right of a people to govern itself, to determine its own priorities within constraints imposed by its external environment. Increased interdependence may change the balance of advantage and disadvantage in any "self-determined" act, but it cannot make the principle of self-determination or self-government superfluous. At ANY level of integration or interdependence, a community of people must ask itself how important it is to retain the right to make its own choices between the options with which they are faced. <b>Is there ANY <i>Nationalist or Yes supporter in the Independence Referendum, in light of the brutal fashion in which Eire and Greece in particular, were treated by the EU, can honestly believe that what was on display was an example of "shared" or "pooled" sovereignty?</i></b></div>
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In light of the Greek tragedy, the latest definition of sovereignty by Alex Salmond, when he addressed the European Policy Centre in Brussels on Europe Day May 9th 2016, is totally meaningless. He said, "A individual country's sovereignty comes from influence, not force, from soft, not hard power, from enlightened self-interest, not self-interest alone." Mr Salmond's understanding of the concept would seem to be back to front. Without sovereignty, without the right to make laws, to show by example how their system is better than that of others, how can a country exert influence? When countries' own legal systems can be superseded by a supranational institution, when trade, agriculture, fishing, mobility of people, to name only a few functions of government, are all outwith the control of a country's government, where is the opportunity to influence? Since Qualified Majority Voting was introduced, the UK - population 60+ million, 5th largest economy in the world -has tried to stop EU legislation 70 times and been DEFEATED 70 times. Some influence! Mr Salmond also cited the SNP Government's new "baby box", modelled on Finland's "maternity package", as an example of how, through the EU, member states can learn from each other. He somehow missed the irony of the fact that Finland had had the "maternity package" for over 80 years, long before the EU existed and we could have copied it at any time during that period.</div>
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All governments lie and the basis on which Heath's Tory government sold the Common Market to the British people was very soon recognised to be a massive con. The "Founding Fathers" were never in any doubt about the long term aim of "ever closer political union" and each new Treaty since the Treaty of Rome, has increased the centralisation of the EU, together with increased surrender of political and economic control (sovereignty) of the member states. This has always been denied of course; even the statements made by "Remain" supporters in the current campaign, insist sovereignty is merely "shared" while some of the most hysterical of them insist there is no such thing as sovereignty in the modern interdependent world, as we will soon learn as the "EU punishes the UK if it chooses to leave." Scottish Nationalists have always complained about the "democratic deficit" in the UK, as Scotland now has only 59 Westminster seats out of a total of 650 and Scots frequently are governed by a party they did not elect. Neither the SNP nor many of its supporters, have any problem with Scots having 6 seats (13 possibly if Scotland becomes a member in its own right) out of total of 751, in a European Parliament with far fewer powers than Westminster. In 1999 Scotland had 8 MEPs, reduced to 7 in 2004 and further reduced to 6 in 2009.</div>
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It is necessary to examine the bureaucratic structure of the EU, in order to determine whether or not it satisfies the basic tenets of democracy. With a total of only 6 (perhaps 13) MEPs, is it possible to serve Scotland's interests? Even if we had our own Commissioner, his or her first loyalty would be to the EU as a whole, not Scotland. The Council of Ministers would see an independent Scotland represented by its own Government Ministers but, as there are no European-wide political parties for which to vote in the hope of furthering particular values or interests, "horse-trading" and "deals" are the order of the day. Does even the most fervent EU supporter really believe that 5 million Scots can possibly be an equal partner of over 80 million Germans, whatever the theory says?</div>
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<b style="text-align: center;"><u>"The Impact of EU Membership on Scotland" (Spice Report 30 October 2015)</u></b></div>
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<b style="text-align: center;"><u>Fig 1</u></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_xMG8kGNNdX293qE6V9812_-QFnBLdq13MJ0JeyodiKYgjka6-J4CQvpmf43_ykKmC68APqrcFVn8ePY_xeMDVrwrpULnoZE-9tK7stfOaOyH0e0u4OsiIxo-u-MvADH2dL94-0O6lBoy/s1600/EU+timeline.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_xMG8kGNNdX293qE6V9812_-QFnBLdq13MJ0JeyodiKYgjka6-J4CQvpmf43_ykKmC68APqrcFVn8ePY_xeMDVrwrpULnoZE-9tK7stfOaOyH0e0u4OsiIxo-u-MvADH2dL94-0O6lBoy/s640/EU+timeline.jpg" width="532" /></a></div>
<u style="font-weight: bold;">Fig 1</u> shows the growth, in terms of the number of members, of the Common Market since the original six member states; France, West Germany, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg first formed the Common Market in 1957. Of more importance, <u style="font-weight: bold;">Fig 2</u> shows the series of Treaties, which have progressively increased the centralising power of the institutions of the EU, at the expense of the power of the governments of the Member States. Germany and France had waged war on each other three times since 1870, with devastating consequences for not only those two countries but the entire world in 1914 and 1939. It was entirely reasonable therefore, for the leaders of the European nations to seek a solution to the apparent need of the major European powers to wage war on each other at regular intervals. Realism dictated that to create a unified European state at a single go would be impossible, particularly as many of the countries which had been part of one European empire or another, had only re-established their independence post the 1914-18 War only to be crushed either by Germany or the Allies during the 1939-45 War. By the end of the 1940s some of those countries were once again under the domination of the Soviet Union, therefore the drive towards European Union was limited to the original Six members, with the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community, at the Treaty of Paris in April 1951. A start had been made with control of production of coal, iron and steel, otherwise known as "the sinews of war". <br />
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<b><u>Fig 2</u></b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbrWYl4Ljcd3DXi7KbnDPaPJfHi3fwCcUXDy7lFk1EKNSuGuCyDOyurBAuTRAI1BtB7Wn2a7BYpRw7ly0xxLcwUK3grg_RXJFvJfA0-CDF0ukyG4_El3km_XSUEmoxz0x61gJrHPoFKP9B/s1600/img001.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="488" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbrWYl4Ljcd3DXi7KbnDPaPJfHi3fwCcUXDy7lFk1EKNSuGuCyDOyurBAuTRAI1BtB7Wn2a7BYpRw7ly0xxLcwUK3grg_RXJFvJfA0-CDF0ukyG4_El3km_XSUEmoxz0x61gJrHPoFKP9B/s640/img001.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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One of the most often heard complaints from the British electorate, is they did not sign up to the EU when they agreed to join the Common Market. That is certainly true but if they had questioned their political leaders a lot more closely, or at least, listened more closely to the arguments put forward by those politicians like Peter Shore, Norman Buchan and many others who opposed the Common Market, they would have known what to expect. After WWII, historians were wont to point out that if Europe's political leaders had read Hitler's Mein Kampf, they would have been better prepared for what was to come. Similarly, those who complain they didn't know what they were signing up to when they agreed to the Common Market, would have been left in no doubt, had they taken the trouble to read "The Treaty of Rome". Even so, many who did read it, did not seem to understand what "ever closer political union" actually meant.<br />
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The Treaty of Rome 1957 set up the European Economic Community or Common Market, the titles suggesting it was a trading agreement between Member States, with little or no political content or ambition. As much of the early work included the abolition of all tariffs on trade between the Member States and a Common External Tariff placed on goods coming from any country outwith the Common Market, it is easy to see why people were misled. The details of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) were discussed in 1957 but it was not until 1962 that CAP came into effect and the 1970s before the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) was adopted. The Single European Act (SEA), said to be the largest single surrender of national sovereignty of the Member States, the first major treaty change since the Treaty of Rome, was signed in 1986 and set the objective of creating the Single Market by 1992. The SEA introduced a number of reforms which laid the ground work for the further integration of the EU, particularly in the political field. It removed the veto on a number of issues, increased the power of the European Parliament, and the European Council, extended Qualified Majority Voting to new areas, set the date for the Single Market at 1993, which included the free movement of goods, capital, labour and services, introduced 272 unitary market-mechanisms, as well as setting standards for workers health and safety. The Danish Parliament rejected ratification of the SEA at the first time of asking, because it extended the power of the European Parliament, but a Referendum on the measure was passed by the Danish people, as was the Referendum in Eire, the only other country in the EEC to hold one.<br />
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The Treaty of Maastricht 1992 set up the euro but as this will be discussed in detail in the next blog on the economics of the EU, the conditions for membership, the effects of the currency and the economic fallout, will all be discussed then. The political consequences of the Treaty are substantial as it created the European Union and European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) gave the EU unprecedented control of the economies of the members of the eurozone. The creation of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), of which members had to have been a member for two years before entry to the euro, created more stress on the currencies of the members than some of them could handle. The UK was forced out in September 1992 and the entire system was abandoned 18 months later. As Fig 2 shows, Maastricht was followed by the Treaty of Amsterdam in 1997, which incorporated the Schengen Agreement into European Union Law, the Nice Treaty in 2000 and the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, all of which increased the control of the EU over the affairs of the Member States. The details of Schengen and the recent consequences of the migrant pressure, will be covered in a later piece.<br />
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The "acquis communautaire" is the accumulated body of EU law and obligations since 1958 to the present day. It is comprised of all the EU's Treaties and laws (directions, regulations, decisions) declarations and resolutions, international agreements and judgements of the Court of Justice. It also includes actions which EU Governments have taken together in areas of freedom, security and justice and under the Common Foreign and Security Policy. New EU Member States must accept ALL existing acquis and the Court of Justice has ruled that EU acquis take precedence over national law if there is any conflict. There are an estimated 80,000 items which are current. But Remain continue to argue there is no loss of sovereignty for Member States. Despite the predominance of economic arguments in favour of remaining in the EU, there can be few members of the public in the UK who fail to recognise that the EU is not predominantly an economic club. The original aims of the Founding Fathers were political and while economics has played an important role, the European Project is still political. Anyone who still has doubts about the political undercurrents and who wonders why the Americans have taken such an interest, from the President to a rather lengthy line of past Secretaries of State, may like to ponder on the following.<br />
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The EU and its supporters love to take credit for every forward movement of European society from keeping the peace in Europe since 1945 to ensuring we all breath "good air". The claim to have kept the peace since 1945 is one of the most bizarre. Each of the original Six, Federal Republic of Germany (FRG), France, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg had all been defeated and occupied during WWII. By 1945, Germany was a country divided between the victorious Allies, Italy and France were in no position to defend anything or threaten anyone. Who were the Benelux countries likely to attack? Germany remained a divided country until October 1990 and those Members which had been part of the Soviet Empire until the fall of Communism in 1989-90, had actually taken part in the subjugation of Hungary and Czechoslovakia. So where was the EEC/EU when the Soviet tanks rolled into East Berlin in 1953 or when the Soviet Bloc crushed the Hungarian Revolution in 1956 and the Prague Spring in 1968? There is an argument which suggests that the unilateral German recognition of the Croatian Republic, despite the UK's request there should be no unilateral recognition and that the UN should intervene, exacerbated the situation in the Balkan War. Where was the EU when the massacre took place at Srebrenica in July 1995, where over 8,000 Muslim men and boys were killed, "the worst human atrocity since 1945"? Far from having kept the peace in Europe since 1945, the EEC/EU has not even kept the peace within its own current boundaries. Any reasonable person will note that the interaction of NATO and the Warsaw Pact were responsible for peace in Europe, not the EU.<br />
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Given the political and social history of the Member States, it is heart warming to see how far society in the EU has progressed. There is no doubt that many of the reforms which have taken place have benefited at least some of the people of Europe. What many of the UK supporters of the EU seem to forget, is that as a bloc, the EU benefits the strongest and punishes the weakest. There is a tendency in the UK for those on "the left" to see the EU as a bastion against the "political right", by which many of them simply mean "The Tories". It may surprise them to know that out of the 28 current EU members, 10 have a history of Fascist or Right Wing government, 11 spent many years as part of the Soviet Bloc and only 7 have an unbroken history of democracy. The vast majority of the population of this much vaunted "market of 500 million" lived under the control of either a Nazi/Fascist or Communist system of government for much longer than they have done under a democratic one. A centralised form of government therefore is much more familiar to them than it is to the people of the UK and unfortunately, in times of crisis, some form of extremism is rarely far from the surface. We have long been familiar with the National Front in France where it now takes 25% of the vote and is considered "mainstream" rather than "extreme" in the French political system.<br />
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The current crisis of migration however, has led to a considerable rise in parties of the "Right" from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean. In the various state and regional elections which have taken place over the past year, in the Member States of the EU, the Far Right parties all made substantial gains. In Germany Chancellor Merkel lost two of the three states where elections were held, to the AfD which is now the third most popular party in Germany. In Denmark, the Danish People' Party (DPD) took 21% of the vote and is now Denmark's second largest party, while in Italy, the Lega Nord - on a platform of being anti-Muslim, anti-Gypsies and anti-immigrant took 20% of the vote in Tuscany, the historical home of Italy's "Left". In Poland, the Law and Justice Party is in government, Slovakia in March, 23% of first time voters supported the neo-Nazi L'SNS, in Hungary the neo-Fascist Jobbik party, which advocates "ethnic purity", took 20% of the vote and is now the third largest party in the country while in Greece, the neo-fascist Golden Dawn took 7% of the vote which meant over 500,000 people. In Sweden, the openly neo-Nazi Sweden Democrats took 13% of the vote in March making it the third largest party in parliament. The latest polls give its support at 25%. In the EU Parliament France's National Front, Dutch Party of Freedom, Italy's Lega Nord and Austria's Freedom Party won enough seats between them to form a "Far Right" voting bloc, which gives them access to EU funds, which is likely to allow them to campaign even harder for as long as the migrant crisis lasts. However bad the "left" in Scotland think the Tories are - and the visceral hatred that some feel, pollutes social media on a daily basis - the reality is that they come no where near the neo-Fascist Right in Europe. If support for the EU is because it is "not the UK" or to get away from the hated Tories, what is already there in the EU could turn out to be a lot worse.<br />
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Finally, President Obama's intervention in the EU referendum debate, was simply a continuation of what has been a strand of American foreign policy since the end of WWII, a United States of Europe. Declassified American documents show that the CIA ran a campaign in the 1950s and 1960s to build momentum for a United Europe and it funded and directed the European federalist movement. One of the documents, dated July 1950 gives instructions to campaign for a European Parliament, signed by General William J Donovan, head of American wartime OSS, precursor of the CIA. An American Committee for a United Europe (ACUE) was formed in 1948 with Donovan as its Chairman, and Allen Dulles as Vice-Chairman. Dulles just happened to be the CIA's first Director. Documents further show ACUE financed the European Movement, probably the most important and active federalist lobbying group since the end of WWII, providing 53% of its funds in 1958. A memo dated 11th June 1965, advises the Vice-Chairman of the European Economic Community (EEC), Robert Marjolin to pursue monetary union by stealth. It recommends suppressing debate until the point at which the "adoption of such proposals would become virtually inescapable." No one can say that things have not gone to plan, particularly the suppressing debate part. Now, what is it about TTIP that angers us most?<br />
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I would suggest that before Scots finally put their cross on the ballot paper, they should pause and ask themselves the following:-<br />
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1) Is the record of the SNP on the EU and currency such, that you are prepared to follow their line blindly?<br />
2) Do you really believe the political structure of the EU (economics is separate) allows member states to retain sovereignty?<br />
3) Do you really believe that Qualified Majority Voting will allow a Nation of 5 million people to carry the same weight as countries with 50 million, 60 million, 80 million people?<br />
4) To what problem is the EU the answer?<br />
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<br />Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-31409930137985845042015-05-17T14:08:00.001-07:002015-10-12T03:11:48.832-07:00Alex, You Better Live To Be 100 PlusFor me, one of the most depressing incidents of recent memory was the result of the Independence Referendum on September 18th 2014. It was not just the fact that over 2 million Scots voted against independence, what was even more depressing was the unadulterated glee and triumphalism of the No campaigners, as the results came in and area after area recorded overwhelming opposition to what the majority of nations regard as normal. I couldn't help thinking, "What kind of people are we, that we celebrate the opinions of the metropolitan elite, the English media and the political establishment, contending as they do, that Scots are too poor to even contemplate independence?" That doesn't even begin to touch on the opinions of the Kelvin McKenzies and Boris Johnsons, speaking for large sections of the English people, who regard Scots as perpetual whiners, subsidy junkies and wasters. I thought, "It is one thing to accept, secretly if we must, that alone of almost every other nation on earth, Scots lack the smeddum, the intelligence, the desire even, to govern ourselves. But to celebrate it as if we had just been liberated from years of occupation by a cruel and vengeful enemy, at the end of a bitterly contested war; what the hell happened to self-confidence, self-respect, dignity?"<br />
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The aftermath, the enormous growth in membership of the SNP, the "Party of Independence"; the daily repetition on social media of a new found desire for independence, on the part of many who had been energised by the referendum to participate in politics for the first time, began to renew my hope that many Scots were beginning to realise they had made a mistake by voting "No". The result of the election on May 7th took everyone by surprise, not least the SNP. Nicola Sturgeon wasn't just playing safe when she reminded party activists that "Every seat above eleven will be a record for us" and when she urged caution on being told the results of the exit polls on the day of the election itself. When the first result was announced for the constituency of Kilmarnock and Loudoun, "SNP 30,000" I knew something special had happened. I should have been over the moon but as the night wore on - my wife and I were there until the end - we both realised we weren't, in fact we felt quite flat. We finally realised the reason for that feeling was the almost total absence of the word "independence". Newly elected SNP MPs, some with unbelievable majorities, came to the mike to speak about "progressive politics", "Scotland's voice will be heard", "stronger Scotland" but few if any, spoke about independence.<br />
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Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP leadership in general, gave ample warning that "this election is not about independence", "it is not about another referendum", "even if the SNP were to win every seat, it would not be a mandate for independence or even another referendum". In interview after interview since the election, she has reiterated that stance, agreeing with Andrew Marr when he said, "What you are saying is that the SNP is a <i style="font-weight: bold;">National party</i> and not a <i style="font-weight: bold;">Nationalist party"</i>. That is to do no more than state the obvious, given the number of the party's leadership who have consistently eschewed Nationalism in favour of class politics, but the SNP in the past, never saw any contradiction and always considered the party to be a National party - hence the title.Older members, those of them who always considered themselves to be Nationalists, may find themselves disappointed as independence is put on the back, back burner, where it has been for the past twenty five years or a whole political generation.<br />
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Nicola Sturgeon summed up her approach in an interview with the Sunday Herald on 3rd of May, when she said, "<i>My immediate objective and priority in politics is to try and make things better for all of us who live in Scotland right now. If I was to judghe everything all the time on looking two or three steps ahead - what does this mean for the SNP's ultimate goal? - we'd very quickly lose all the trust that people in Scotland have in us. It would be totally counterproductive. The most important thing is to do the best you can for the country as you see it in the here and now". </i>In other words, short termism rules OK. I don't believe people would lose trust in the SNP if they thought every policy position was mindful of the ultimate goal of independence. At least they would know where they stood and, more importantly, party activists of long standing would believe the party actually wanted independence.<br />
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Perhaps also, there would be fewer contradictions in SNP policy if more thought was given to how current political decisions affected the prospects for independence. We all know the last five years have seen real suffering among the working class; the food banks, cuts in welfare, job losses, and a general reduction in living standards for large sections of our population are hardly a sign the country is doing well. But it is giving false hope to Scots to suggest that short term measures such as a "few more powers" are going to provide any lasting benefit. If the SNP really believes Scotland cannot prosper to its full potential, until we have complete independence - which means total control of our resources - why adopt political positions which will delay that day to some time in the distant future, if it is attained at all? Independence has been on the back burner for the past twenty five years; how much have we lost in oil revenues in that time? Norway started its oil fund in 1990 and it is now worth an estimated £450 billion. For the past thirty years Scots economic growth has been 0.5% lower each year, than the UK as a whole - a measurement which is reduced by including Scots growth levels, thereby disguising the true disparity - therefore how much have we lost in job opportunities, increases in welfare and so on?<br />
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The SNP has always rejected, with good reason, the Unionist argument that to leave the rUK would mean economic disaster, enormous job losses, loss of trade etc. Why in Heaven's name therefore, is the only argument we have heard from the SNP in opposition to leaving the EU, the loss of jobs? There is no difference between Better Together's argument for remaining in the UK and the SNP's argument for remaining in the EU. People are treated as no more than factors of production, with no interest other than "jobs, jobs and more jobs". The fact that over 100,000 jobs have been lost in the Scottish fishing industry alone, the Scottish steel industry was destroyed as the price of entry to the Common Market, as it was then, are totally ignored. There is no mention of the democratic deficit, the centralisation of power, the supremacy of EU Law over Scots Law and the fact we are powerless to negotiate trade deals with those countries outwith the EU. Despite their protestations - quite rightly - that David Cameron has no right to deny Scots another referendum on independence, the SNP seems to think it has the right to deny Scots a referendum on whether an independent Scotland should be in the EU. Despite opinion polls which contradict them, the SNP continues to peddle the myth that Scots are much more pro-EU than the rest of the UK. If that is the case they should have no fear of an in-out referendum.<br />
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Just as the currency proved to be a major stumbling block in the Independence Referendum, so Full Fiscal Autonomy (FFA)is proving to be just as big a stumbling block in the aftermath of the General Election, despite the SNP's 56 seats in Scotland. The party insists that is all it needs to ensure the Scottish economy can provide the necessary increases in employment, economic growth and improvement in living standards to enable Scotland to abolish food banks, get rid of austerity and abolish the current deficit. At the same time, it totally ignores the fact that Westminster would still control the currency and that it is not possible to have FFA in a currency union. Within 24 hours of being elected as the SNP MP for East Lothian, George Kerevan wrote in The National of May 9th, "<i>We all know that in present UK economic circumstances a fiscally autonomous Scotland would face a significant budget deficit. For Scotland to accept fiscal autonomy without inbuilt UK-wide fiscal balancing -financial transfers or subsidies from rUK to Scotland - would be tantamount to economic suicide." </i>While this is totally contrary to the argument presented by the SNP prior to the May election, the party is now arguing that FFA would take several years to implement, during which time the very limited new economic powers that the Scottish Government will be granted, will generate enough economic growth to cancel or at least substantially reduce the current deficit. This is economic nonsense.<br />
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Another advocate of FFA who has also changed his argument, is the founder and leader of Business for Scotland, Gordon Macintyre-Kemp. In The National of May 15th he wrote, "<i>The best way to run the UK is to move towards increased devolution and federalism.....If Scotland then chose independence, then the UK currency zone and common market becomes a confederation. However, it seems that everyone has a different definition of Full Fiscal Responsibility and most describe full fiscal independence - </i><b style="font-style: italic;">something you can't actually have within a union." </b>George Kerevan also advocated moving towards federalism within the UK. So we now have independence is really a confederation and two leading SNP supporters, one of them an SNP MP, advocating federalism.Is it any wonder that there is a petition currently making the rounds on Facebook, demanding that the SNP includes another Independence Referendum in its 2016 Holyrood manifesto? If it is included at all, we can be sure the timetable set will be indefinite to the point of being meaningless.<br />
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We will have to wait to see just how effective the SNP's 56 MPs will be in "making Scotland's voice heard" but I suspect there are many who will be disappointed at just how much impact they will have. Of one thing we can be certain, there will be no UDI. As the votes and the seats piled up on May 7th, I was reminded of the first National Council that was held after Winnie Ewing won the Hamilton by-election in 1967. She told delegates that one of the Labour MPs, one of the few who actually spoke to her all the time she was there, said to her that he hoped she would soon settle down, to which Winnie replied, "I didn't come here to settle down, I came to settle up". Given the retreat by the party leadership from their original position of demanding the immediate implementation of FFA, I am also reminded of the question I used to ask applicants to go on the list of parliamentray candidates, "If you thought Scotland would be poorer with independence, would you still be a Nationalist"? I suspect there would not be many who answered "Yes". Alex Salmond said the "SNP's 56 MPs will shake Westminster to its foundations" I would love to think he is right, but he also said he expected to see independence "in his lifetime". Alex, you better be prepared to live to well over 100.Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-19852096120242752682015-04-06T01:21:00.003-07:002015-09-16T11:16:03.741-07:00Is Scotland Hideously White, In Need of Cultural Diversity?Whew, mention immigration in this country and you can be certain the roof will collapse in on you. I made two errors when I tweeted the results of the study of voting patterns in the Independence Referendum by Professor Ailsa Henderson of Edinburgh University, followed by the question, "Does open door immigration make sense?" The cardinal misjudgement was thinking immigration can be discussed sensibly or even at all, in a tweet. The intended blog for which the tweet was a lead, was unready therefore I should have delayed the tweet until it was. The second was in using the word "Scots" instead of the term "Scots born" as I meant to. Scott Macnab's article in The Scotsman, which reported the turmoil which the original tweet caused, was reasonable. Unfortunately he failed to include, as other reports did and, as I have pointed out in a letter to The Scotsman which at the time of writing has yet to be published, the response from the highly respected journalist Iain Macwhirter. The original tweet generated over a thousand responses, which continued into the following day and ranged from the crass to the acceptable.<br />
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The figures in the Edinburgh study, covering the votes of 4,500 people, showed that 52.7% of people <b>born</b> in Scotland voted Yes; 72.1% <b>born</b> in rest of UK and 57% <b>born</b> outside UK, voted No. I quoted those figures followed by the question. There was no mention of race, colour, religion, ethnicity or anything other than the figures quoted. Sadly, the highly respected journalist Iain Macwhirter, led the charge by tweeting, "Yes - Scotland is <b>hideously white</b>", followed by "Scotland also has ageing population which erodes tax base. Need young taxpayers. Any <b>colour</b> will do". He concluded with, "Scotland <b>needs</b> cultural diversity and younger population. Only immigration will do that. Nothing to do with indy/ref" The highlighting is mine. His first comment is crass, openly racist and I can only imagine the uproar if I, or anyone else, had tweeted, Kenya/Ghana et al is hideously <b>black</b>". No more than a dozen or so respondents raised that very issue with Mr Macwhirter, the rest - hundreds of them - either agreed with him, applauded him or simply ignored the open racism of his tweets, while the vast majority accused me of every kind of racism and bigotry. The sheer hypocrisy, to say nothing of the ignorance and stupidity of many of the responses, was quite breathtaking.<br />
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Of course there was no attempt made to explain why Scotland needs cultural diversity, it was simply asserted and accepted. The results of the Edinburgh study showed that immigration to Scotland had a very obvious effect on the results of the referendum, contrary to Mr Macwhirter's claim, in response to which I asked, "Why open our doors to those more likely to vote to deny us our independence and skew vote more?" - more of which below. Migration is one of the greatest problems facing many European countries just now and the consequences of a sudden influx of people of a different culture, race, values and mores can be horrendous, with the immigrants frequently paying the heaviest price. Thousands have lost their lives in desperate attempts to reach Europe from Africa, parts of England are in turmoil as a consequence of Labour's open door immigration policy and Scotland has still to fully come to terms with the Irish influx of the 19th and 20th centuries, while Northern Ireland has its own story to tell. We hold refugees and asylum seekers, who have already lost everything, in dentenion centres like Dungavel to the detriment of both their physical and mental health. Scotland, historically has been, and still is, rather choosey about those it makes welcome.<br />
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Just to set the scene, a few pieces of personal information are in order. Born in Perth of a Catholic mother and Protestant father, I was taught religeous tolerance from the earliest age. As I attended the only Catholic school in Perth from 1945 onwards, my earliest friends included Irish, Italian and Polish children as well as the native Scots. One of my closest friends for over forty years is Polish. My wife of fifty three years, was born in Glasgow of Irish parents, her father from Mayo and her mother from Donegal, therefore our five children are half Irish with a number of relatives still living in Dublin and Donegal. Two of our great grandchildren are half Chinese and our family from the outset, encouraged them to embrace the language, history (which I taught for several years) and culture of their father's people. The wedding ceremony included both Scots and Chinese features, including the charming "Tea Ceremony" where the newly wedded young couple pay respects to their parents and grandparents. My brother-in-law of almost fifty years is English as is the partner of one of our sons. Cultural diversity? Aye, I think I know a wee bit about it, having actually lived with it quite happily for most of my life, as opposed to just paying lip service to it in order to assert my "superiority" or parade my unco guidness, as is likely true of the majority of my critics. The Irish immigration, particularly to the West Central Belt of Scotland, has been anything but a total blessing and we could have well done without some of the obscenities of the Rangers/Celtic relationship (see my blog "Scottish Nationalism And Catholicism") but NO, I will not be singing "The Famine Song" as one cretin suggested.<br />
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So, what are the possible consequences of open door immigration, other than to rid Scotland of its "hideous white culture" as so many of Mr Macwhirter's supporters would appear to want? We have been sheltered from the consequences of Labour's attempt to socially engineer the population, by adopting open door immigration but England has not. For years the political elites ignored the expressed concerns of the English electorate about the pressures on schools, hospitals, housing, the lack of social integration and what has been termed the "ghetoisation" of several of England's major cities. The pressure on education, health, housing; the increase in zero hours contracts with the subsequent drop in living standards, were denied, denied, denied and therefore ignored. The supporters of UKIP objected strongly to being dismissed as racists until finally, Ed Miliband admitted "Labour got immigration wrong". Now the major parties have all promised to control the number of immigrants, although there is nothing they can do about those coming from the EU. People have grown tired of hearing the elites defend immigration in terms of the massive contribution immigrants make to the economy, the NHS and public transport, as if their own contributions to these things are of no account. The outcome is frequently the scapegoating of immigrants for the poor housing, unemployment, low pay and fall in living standards that have become the reality for so many ordinary people in England's worst areas of social deprivation which have been unable to cope with the growth in population. Political elites have grown accustomed to turning working people against each other, largely because they find it so easy to engineer.<br />
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Immigration has become a "No-go zone" for debate and the responses to my original tweet, are a pretty fair indication of why this should be so. The authorities have finally been forced to admit that the grooming, leading to the rape and sexual abuse of thousands of young girls in large areas of England, could have been stopped years ago, had they not been terrified to highlight the racial overtones involved. That is wrong at every level and again, the poorest and most socially deprived are the prime victims. Refusal to debate the potential consequences of an open door immigration policy in Scotland must not be allowed to take root because the elites find it uncomfortable or because it suits their purpose but of far greater importance, it must not be allowed to take root because the likely victims will be those least able to defend themselves, many of them the newly arrived immigrants. Even controlled immigration will have consequences, some acceptable, some not. Open door immigration will allow greater numbers to come into Scotland therefore the consequences will be correspondingly greater, for good or ill.<br />
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I have been accused of blaming immigration for the rejection of independence in the referendum last September. That is absolute tripe but it suits a Tory politician to make the claim. I am on record as making several statements at the time of the referendum, arguing strongly that the vote should be restricted to those people living in Scotland at the time and registered to vote, irrespective of their origin, colour or creed. I argued equally strongly that ex-pat Scots should <b>NOT</b> have the vote because that would link the vote to ethnicity or national origin, which would be wrong. I disagreed strongly with much of the Yes campaign because I considered it to have several contradictions, particularly on the question of the currency. My strongest criticism however, was that I considered the campaign was far more about class war than about independence. When a member and office bearer in the SNP I disagreed strongly with the political analysis of the '79 Group, several of whose ex- members now hold senior positions in the SNP and Scottish government. I am again on record as one of my main disagreements is their attitude to those natural conservatives in Scotland, who have been encouraged to feel that independence has little to offer them. Over 400,000 Scots voted Tory in 2010, although they returned only one MP because of the first-past-the-post electoral system. Only 8% or 32,000 of those natural Tory voters voted Yes for independence.<br />
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I blamed an inept, class war for the defeat of the referendum on independence. Immigrants and the part they played did not even enter my mind. <b>BUT, and this is vital,</b> the Edinburgh study showed that the immigrant vote played a significant role because the majority voted No. In other words, the genie has been released from the bottle and no one is going to put it back in. People may be angry that the figures were released because of the implications they raise but it is how they are dealt with that is important.There were several social and age groups who voted No in the referendum, not least the over 65s and pensioners. We have to look at the reasons why immigrants and pensioners voted No but the reasons are hardly difficult to find. There is ample evidence that Unionists told immigrant groups they would be deported, while pensioners were told their UK pensions would be stopped. The Labour Party is currently distributing a leaflet that continues to make the same threat to pensioners. The number of assurances that the Unionists were lying (are still lying) had little impact. The treatment meted out to the "over 65s" in the aftermath of the No vote in the referendum, was nothing short of obscene. They were regularly attacked on social media, their tormentors caring little for their reasons for voting No. Those responsible for instilling their fear for the future cared even less.<br />
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It has always been a fallacy that Scotland has welcomed immigrants without question, although we have been more tolerant than many countries.The Irish have always been an exception but again, had the numbers been lower, the outcome may have been different. Anyone who argues there have been no problems is either deluding themselves or wilfully distorting the truth. There are no longer signs exclaiming "NO Irish" but we still have sectarianism, we still have Celtic and Rangers. The result of the referendum was a great disappointment to me but the targetting and scapegoating of the elderly as the main cause of the No vote, left a bad taste. The Edinburgh study has identified another group which can now be scapegoated. Are those who advocate open door immigration, because like Macwhirter they consider Scotland to be "hideously white" or for some other reason, prepared to be answerable for the possible consequences? Probably not, but then, they never are, are they?Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-43899117560083835122015-03-31T06:38:00.002-07:002015-07-22T13:53:27.573-07:00What Impact Will Putting Labour In Office Have On Independence? Is SNP In Danger Of Missing The Boat?The events of the past week; with the most successful SNP conference ever, the TV "debate" between Cameron and Milliband and various statements from senior figures in politics and, of course the dissolution of parliament, set the likely tone for the general election in May. The SNP reiterated their determination to refuse to support a Tory government in Westminster "under any circumstances" and challenged Labour to commit itself, in the event of a "hung parliament", to work with the SNP to deny the Tories office. Miliband, for his part, assured Labour MPs and supporters that he would not agree to any deal with the SNP, that he and Ed Balls would be writing the Labour budget - not Alex Salmond - and both Miliband and Cameron assured us they were both expecting to win a "majority" in May. A couple of polls on Sunday suggested the result may be leaning in Labour's favour but on Monday, another poll suggested the exact opposite. We have a long way and many polls to go before we know who will be PM for the next five years.<br />
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So, what are the prospects for independence if the SNP helps to put Labour in power? Will it hinder or help the cause, or will it make no difference either way? Of course Labour will not be the only factor at play as the position and performance of the SNP will obviously play vital parts as events unfold. Immediately after the Referendum, Salmond proclaimed that May's election would not be about independence, nor would it be about another Referendum: it would be about "Home Rule" as promised by Gordon Brown during the Referendum campaign. Nicola Sturgeon, Stewart Hosie, Angus Robertson and several other SNP office bearers have all confirmed Salmond's claim, so we know that a vote for the SNP in May is not a vote for independence or even the possibility of promoting the concept of independence. At this election, a vote for the SNP is more about electing a Labour Government and making sure the Tories are denied office. It is about, according to Nicola Sturgeon, "being Labour's backbone and guts" and about "reforming Westminster" and "ending austerity" and "abolishing the House of Lords". She could have told her audience that the only certain way of ending austerity in Scotland was to get independence and that Scots would then no longer need to concern themselves about reforming Westminster and abolishing the Lords. But she didn't.<br />
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When I joined the SNP in 1955 at the age of fifteen, there were no more than a few hundred of us but it did not prevent us believing in and campaigning for, independence. The SNP was the only party that stood for Scottish independence and that was the reason I joined. Since then I have been a hard-line, uncompromising and unapologetic Scottish Nationalist. My critics inside the modern SNP call me a "fundamentalist", an "absolutist" and an "isolationist", although they fail to explain what their terms mean. So for the benefit of them and others, my Nationalism is not expressed as a desire to annex anyone else's territory (imperialism), it is concerned only to see the nation of Scotland restored as an independent nation/state and the restoration of sovereignty to where it belongs - with the Scottish people. It extends no further than that; however, I will seek to protect the interests of Scotland and the Scottish people as we re-establish ourselves on the world stage, participating in those alliances which seek to protect and nurture the interests of other people and nations throughout the world. At the same time, creating a decent society within our own borders, a society which will seek the best outcome in all things for the Scottish people, is of paramount importance. During thirty-five years in the SNP and in literally thousands of conversations with friends and colleagues in the party, I found my aspirations mirrored those of other traditional Nationalists.. But the party changed so that now, a number of the SNP leaders, and members, reject Nationalism and prefer to see the need for independence in terms of class rather than the restoration of the nation/state. This will obviously have consequences for the fight for independence in the Westminster environment and the determination to promote a Labour government.<br />
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The SNP, in their eagerness to attack Labour "from the left", created two hostages to fortune which have already come home to roost, as well as making it very difficult for the 400,000 or so Scots who regularly vote Tory, to be persuaded that independence has much to offer them. The first "hostage" was in Nicola Sturgeon's first speech as leader, to party members in Perth on 15th November 2014, when she said, in reference to propping up a Labour government, "Conference, hear me loud and clear when I say this - they (Labour) would have to think again about putting a new generation of Trident nuclear weapons on the river Clyde". On 7th January 2015 she said "...the SNP would never do a political<b> </b>deal with any party that supported nuclear weapons" and reiterated that on 9th February 2015 by saying, "It's a fundamental for me and the SNP-there wouldn't be any Labour/SNP coalition if Trident was part of it". She said a "formal coalition was "unlikely" but we could work on a "case by case basis. I'm not ruling it (a coalition) out completely, let's wait and see how people vote". There is no ambiguity there BUT on 6th March in an interview with The Guardian, Nicola Sturgeon pulled the plug on a political stance which would have stopped any kind of deal with Labour when she confirmed SNP's opposition to Trident but stated that would not prevent a deal on a "vote by vote basis".<br />
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Support for NATO at last year's conference, reversed years of SNP opposition to membership of an international organisation with a "first strike" nuclear policy at its heart. It is a short step to be prepared to prop up a party in government, which believes in keeping Trident nuclear weapons but the SNP sees that as real/politic. The second hostage is the oft-repeated commitment to refuse to deal with the Tories "under any circumstances". Angus Robertson MP and leader of the SNP in Westminster, fell prey to the logical consequences of that stance when questioned by Gordon Brewer on Sunday Politics on Sunday 28th of this month. When asked by Brewer, "Are there any circumstances in which you envisage being unable to support Labour?" Robertson was unable to give an example. Pushed by Brewer and given several opportunities to provide any example when the SNP could vote against Labour, Robertson could not give a single instance, even when Brewer suggested that Labour could more or less do as they pleased and challenge the SNP to do its worst. Robertson could at least have said Trident, but the reality is that although the SNP has said it would not support a single penny being spent on Trident, Labour's Budget will obviously involve defense spending. And that will involve spending on Trident. Will the SNP vote down a Labour Budget because of Trident or, will real/politic again dictate? Given the political postures they have struck, the language they have used, how much real influence, let alone power, will the SNP really have by propping up a Labour government?<br />
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Of far greater importance, what will keeping a Labour government in power for the next five years do for independence, particularly as the party of independence has insisted this election is not about independence? Alex Salmond was right when he said the Referendum had changed the politics of Scotland, but I suspect the change has been far, far greater than anyone in the SNP or Yes Campaign had envisaged or even hoped for in their wildest dreams.The quadrupling of SNP membership to over 100,000 since last September, the street activity of Yes supporters, the pressure and demands for change are all unprecedented. There is a mood in the streets, in places of work, in families and households that I have yearned for, for sixty years. It surpasses the excitement and demands for change that were there in the 1970's and just as then, it has caught the SNP by surprise. In light of all of this, why are the SNP not pushing for independence or at least giving Scots some hope of a reasonably short period of consolidation, instead of repeating the mantra, "The people will tell us when". Angus Brown told Gordon Brewer he did not envisage another Referendum within the next parliament. Is the SNP not listening or is it just not hearing?<br />
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I covered this in a previous blog but the point is worth repeating. The SNP is not going to be the only political party available to do deals with Labour and the Tories, whichever of the two major parties is in a position to realistically consider government. Little or no speculation has been made about the prospects of deals with the other smaller parties, and while the polls suggest the SNP could well be the largest of that group, polls have been wrong before. In any case, the concern for the majority of Scots is, or should be, the prospects for independence. The number of possible scenarious is almost endless and speculation at this juncture is pointless but there is one absolute certainty in all the speculation, if Labour ever has to choose between the Union and Scottish independence, it will choose the Union every time. For that reason, nothing will be done, no political powers granted to Scotland, that will enhance in any way, shape or form, the prospects for independence. What also must be remembered is that both Labour and the SNP have their eyes firmly fixed on the elections to the Scottish Parliament in May 2016, a mere twelve months from now. Realistically, they are the only two parties with any prospect of forming a Scottish Government, although Labour would likely have to seek support from another smaller party.<br />
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Anything that is done in Westminster over the next twelve months, any votes for or against change, for good or ill as far as Scotland is concerned, will be used by both SNP and Labour either to bolster their case in Scotland or to attack the other party. This should benefit the SNP because despite Nicola Sturgeon's appeal to English voters that the SNP will be their "friends", the party does not have to concern itself too much about the reaction of English voters, unlike Labour. The English electors are more likely to take the view, "beware Greeks bearing gifts" than feel reassurance that the SNP propping up a UK government could work to their advantage. A UK Labour government, propped up by SNP support, will obviously try to avoid alienating Scots before May 2016 and, both parties will claim the accolades and credit, for any benefits that come our way. The SNP will not want to see popular changes that benefit Scotland, increase the popularity of Labour but that is always a possibility, although they will claim it is only the presence of a "strong SNP group in Westminster" that made the changes possible. Their new mantra is "the majority of Scots' preferred outcome is a Labour/SNP government" although the possibility of that arrangiement also being preferred for the Scottish Parliament, seems to have passed them by. Beware what you wish for.<br />
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If it is true that "Fortune favours the brave" is the SNP brave enough to change the language and therefore the direction of their strategy? There are two fairly recent lessons from history which are perhaps worth remembering. Throughout 1978 the Callaghan government toiled not only with economic problems but an increasingly restless Trade Union movement, which had seen the standard of living of many of its members cut severely, while rises in incomes had been controlled. Despite this, the TUs were still prepared to support the Labour government in the expectation of a general election before the end of the year. I still remember Callaghan standing at the rostrum singing, "There was I waiting at the church", as he announced on the 7th September that there would be no election that year. It is an election that almost every commentator and pundit expected Labour to win. That decision angered the TUs and almost ensured the massive strike action that ocurred in the Winter of Discontent which followed. In November 1978 Labour still had a lead of 5% in the polls but by January the Tories had a lead of 7.9% and by February that lead had grown to 20%. The general election in March saw the return of the Tories and Margaret Thatcher. The demise of Gordon Brown was perhaps less dramatic but is said to have been equally unnecessary, had he gone to the country in autumn 2007 rather than wait until 2010.<br />
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The inability of two Labour Prime Ministers to read the political runes, led to no more than the loss of office for the Labour Party, which was well past its sell-by date in any case. If the SNP does likewise, it stands to lose a great deal more than political office, it stands to lose Scotland.<br />
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<br />Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-47924797992411413262015-02-09T11:10:00.001-08:002015-07-22T13:53:36.701-07:00The Scorpion and the Frog<b><i>"Leadership does not always wear the harness of compromise" - </i>Woodrow Wilson.</b><br />
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The fable of the Scorpion and the Frog is well known but for the uninitiated: a scorpion comes to a river and being unable to swim, asks a nearby frog if it will carry it over on its back. The frog is naturally afraid the scorpion will sting it to death and says so. The scorpion says, "Why would I do that as then we would both die?" The frog decides that this makes sense and therefore agrees but when they are only half way across and at the deepest part of the river, the scorpion stings the frog, who asks with his dying breath, "Why, why did you do that?" The scorpion replied, "It is just in my nature." I would ask readers to keep the fable in mind as they read on.<br />
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I raised the issue of the SNP's decision to go into a coalition with Labour at Westminster, in the event of a hung parliament, but to refuse to agree to any kind of deal or support for the Tories "under any circumstances", on 19th November 2011 in the blog "Vote SNP - And Get Labour" and again on 22nd January in, "Could a Coalition With Labour Split The SNP?" I am glad to see Ian Macwhirter raised the same issue in the "Sunday Herald" where he said, "Miliband is in a poker game with the SNP which he can't lose". The National's new columnist, George Kerevan, used his first column on February 9th to discuss the same topic. He claims to have spoken at an SNP meeting in Edinburgh, at which he asked for a show of hands of those who were opposed to a deal with Labour, even on SNP terms. Half the audience obliged. My only question is why it took Macwhirter and Kerevan so long to recognise the SNP's position is untenable?<br />
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Something about Labour, both UK and Scottish versions, which independence supporters would do well to remember: it is a long time since they had any pretensions of being a socialist party and even longer since they were supporters of "Home Rule". Labour is first and foremost a Unionist party and if any independence supporter had any doubts about that, it was surely confirmed, not just by the alliance with the Tories in the Referendum but in the very obvious delight of Labour Party members at the various counts, each time a "No" vote was registered. Despite Miliband and Balls declaring their intentions to "save the NHS" and "abolish poverty", Labour has already committed itself to the same austerity cuts championed by the Tories - £30 billion of them. Just how does Nicola Sturgeon intend to follow a "progressive and constructive" political programme with partners like that and what does it mean for Scotland?<br />
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The First Minister has said the "SNP will push Scotland's interests at Westminster" but it is difficult to see how when they have removed from the equation the most potentially effective counter to Labour the SNP have - a deal with the Tories. The SNP can forget any idea of getting rid of Trident and nuclear weapons because there is a massive majority in Westminster in favour of keeping it. Having made it a "Red Line" issue, what will the SNP do when Labour says they have no intention of getting rid of Trident or its successor? No one really expects SNP to have any success on that issue, therefore failure to achieve one of their main objectives may not do them too much damage. But what about the promises to get "extra powers" for Scotland or the "Home Rule" that Alex Salmond has said is the prime SNP objective for this election? Alex Salmond was very quick to put a dampner on the expectations of SNP supporters when he announced the May election is "not about independence" and made "Home Rule" the pinnacle of the party's ambitions. We have already had at least three definitions of Home Rule which only muddies the political water even more, making it almost impossible for the Scottish electorate to be certain of what they are being asked to vote for.<br />
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The current coalition between the Conservatives and the Lib/Dems has demanded an extremely heavy price from the junior partner, which will lose over 50% of its seats, according to most recent polls. No matter how often Nick Clegg emphasises that the Lib/Dems have been instrumental in ensuring the UK has been sheltered from even more austerity, by blunting some of the most extreme Conservative policies, the electorate is in no mood to listen. In the election of February 1974, the Liberal Party polled 19.3% of the popular vote and returned 14 MPs, while it polled 18.3% of the vote, returning 13 MPs in October the same year. In March 1977, Callaghan and Steel agreed to the Lib/Lab Pact which allowed the then Labour Government to defeat a Conservative initiated "No Confidence" vote. No matter how much the Liberals claimed their support for Labour was for "the good of the country" which did not need another general election so soon, in March 1979 the party's vote fell to 13.8%, returning 11 MPs. Will the SNP suffer the same fate, taking the blame for Labour failures but getting no credit for any victories, bearing in mind that a "victory" for Scottish interests, almost by definition, will be at the expense of the interests of the rUK? We could write the headlines now.<br />
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The Smith Commission could not have made it any plainer; Westminster will not give up power lightly and some tax concessions granted under Smith's proposals, will be unusable because the monetary powers needed to complement the tax concessions, are absent. It cannot be said often enough, "there is no such thing as fiscal autonomy", at least autonomy that can be made to work. Any deal to support Labour and keep it in power, must compromise SNP principles - Trident being the most obvious example - and for how long will the deal last? Having decided not to play off Labour and Conservatives against each other, Labour will want any deal to have longevity. They will argue legislation takes time and the economic problems are so serious, they must take precedence over constituional issues. Smith has already been agreed and Labour may be prepared to "tweak" the edges but we can rest assured, there will be other demands from the rUK, which will be given priority. The longer the SNP keep Labour in power, the greater the contamination of the SNP there will be, but withdrawal of support, on what will be presented by the media as "the flimsiest of reasons", will be condemned outright. By then the SNP will have reached the deepest part of the river.<br />
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<br />Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-81117065968355245132015-01-22T14:35:00.001-08:002015-04-01T13:16:54.899-07:00Could A Coalition With Labour Split The SNP?The official election campaign for the May Westminster election has now been launched, at least by the major parties. The SNP actually launched their campaign, "unofficially" as soon as the Referendum was over last September, and when Alex Salmond, although no longer the SNP leader, announced the SNP would never deal with the Tories at Westminster "under any circumstances" but would certainly be prepared to prop up a Labour government in a "hung parliament". The significance of that statement, as opposed to the statement itself, has been almost totally ignored by the mainstream media. I have already commented that the SNP and Yes Campaign did not fight a nationalist campaign and in some respects, not even a campaign for independence and, with Salmond's simple assertion, the SNP gave notice that it intended to continue with its class campaign until May. Any one unfamiliar with the voting patterns in Scotland, could be forgiven for assuming that there would be only one significant social class - the working class - in an independent Scotland. By the same token, any one of a conservative bent, could be forgiven for believing there would be no place for Conservatives or even the middle classes who support them, in an independent Scotland.<br />
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There has been substantial "policy creep" by the SNP since last September as the willingness to "prop up" a Labour government in Westminster has now become preparedness to have a full-blown coalition. Again, according to Alex Salmond, who is still not the leader of the SNP or the leader of the SNP's Westminster group or even a Westminster MP, the election in May is not about "independence" or even another referendum. Scots who voted "Yes" last September and joined the SNP in droves in the aftermath, who have kept the demand for "independence" at boiling point ever since, are being told to expect no better than "Home Rule" at best, and no matter how many MPs are elected under the SNP banner. The latest Mori poll suggests the SNP will not only take 55 seats next May, it will also have the majority of the popular vote, while Labour will have 4 MPs and the Tories and Lib/Dems will have none. There was a time when such a result would have been considered as a mandate for the SNP to negotiate independence and present the results to the Scottish people in a referendum. It would be wonderful if it happened but not even the most blinkered Nationalist believes it will, although more realistic expectations still suggest the SNP will be the biggest party in Scotland after the election in May. If that were to happen, is it realistic to expect "Home Rule" to be granted by a Labour government, albeit one which is in a coalition with the SNP?<br />
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I firmly believe it is about as realistic as to think Labour in government, even a coalition government, would be prepared to get rid of Trident and nuclear weapons. Why do I think that? Perhaps it would be instructive to look at the inherent contradictions in the SNP's current statements and policies, and the potential effects they will have on the electorate.<br />
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* The New SNP would no longer call itself a Nationalist party, given the number of the higher echelons who claimed the Referendum campaign was "not about nationalism" not "about identity". Scottish culture was dismissed by some as "kilts and haggis", as the campaign degenerated into a class war rather than a desire for the rebirth of a Scottish nation/state.<br />
* To say there will be no dealings with the Tories "under any circumstances" is to dismiss as of no account, the feelings and aspirations of almost 17% of Scots who voted Tory as recently as 2010, when 412,855 Scottish electors voted Tory. That was an increase of over 43,000 on the number who voted Tory in 2005. In 1997, 493,059 voted Tory, which was almost 2,000 MORE than voted SNP in 2010. Given the tenor of the Referendum campaign and subsequent statements by the SNP leadership, what incentive is there for anyone of a Conservative bent to vote SNP? Will Tory voters use their vote to support whichever party has the best chance of defeating the SNP?<br />
* A political party, which claims to be "the Nation's party" but which cannot straddle the social classes, and seems prepared to write off the support of over 400,000 or 17% of the electorate, will find great difficulty in making a "national" argument or appealing to a feeling of "nationhood".<br />
* The attacks on the Labour Party by the SNP and its adherents since the referendum, many of them justified, have been made in some instances, in such a ludicrous manner as to make any suggestion of a coalition between SNP and Labour quite laughable. Jim Murphy has been vilified as the Devil incarnate and has been greeted with cries of "traitor" and "quisling" when he appears in public but he will be one of Labour's Westminster MPs (assuming he holds his seat) the SNP want to put into government. After Labour voted for the Tory austerity cuts, Pete Wishart, SNP MP for North Perthshire, tweeted - "Get them out" - . That was followed by a chorus from other SNP MPs, appealing to Scots to "get rid of Labour". Why? - so that the SNP MPs that take their places in Scotland, can then put Labour in power in Westminster? That message does no more than invite derision.<br />
* Nicola Sturgeon has made Trident a "red line issue" and has claimed no deal would be done with any party that supported Trident. That automatically excludes Labour, at least on current policy, from any coalition deal, but funny things tend to happen on the way to office. The Labour Party may find some way to keep the equivalent of Trident but call it something else, after all Jim Murphy has managed to persuade himself he is not a "Unionist"; but under no circumstances will they denude the UK of nuclear weapons. The SNP's "red line" will likely morph into a very pale orange or even yellow, if it intends to "keep Labour in power".<br />
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I find it incredible that any Nationalist party in Scotland (SNP) would announce months before the election in May, it will enter a coalition with a Unionist party (Labour), in the hope of being given more powers for Scotland. To also announce no deal would be made "under any circumstances", with the only other Unionist party likely to garner enough English votes to form the next UK government (Tories), either on its own or as the senior partner in a coalition, removes the bulk of the pressure from the SNP's intended partner. Assuming the SNP will keep its intention to have no deal with the Tories, why would the Labour party feel particularly threatened or under any pressure to offer the SNP any more powers than are already on the table from the Smith Commission? For this to happen, a number of assumptions are being made, some of which almost beggar belief. It is assumed:-<br />
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* The SNP will increase its representation substantially, at the expense of Labour mainly, and the Lib/Dems.<br />
* The Tories will gain insufficient seats in England and Wales to form a government, either on their own or in another coalition.<br />
* The Labour Party will not win enough seats to form a government on its own<br />
* The Lib/Dems, UKIP, Plaid Cymru, NI MPs play no part in the negotiations held to form a government. This may be because they are not interested (unlikely) or their numbers are insufficient to make them relevant (also unlikely). If they do play a part, they will be in agreement with whatever demands the SNP makes and will vote accordingly.<br />
* Labour will concede every demand, including the demand for Home Rule, made by the SNP, which in turn will be required to concede little or nothing (doubtful).<br />
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Notwithstanding the contradictions in the SNP message, as outlined above, all of which are going to have to be explained away to an increasingly sceptical electorate the closer we get to May, there will be a large number of SNP supporters who will require to be persuaded to accept a coalition with a Unionist party. They will fall into two camps; the traditional SNP supporters who still see themselves as Nationalists and, the converts who have joined since the Referendum. The kind of unthinking obedience to the leadership line that characterised the SNP and Yes Campaigns during the Referendum campaign, may not be so easily imposed between now and May. Many of those new SNP members who have already come across from Labour, have let it be known they would not be happy to see Labour kept in office, given the track record of that party in Scotland and its attitude to Scottish independence, which drove it to campaign alongside the Tories. Traditional Nationalists opposed the party line in 1987, when the "hung parliament" scenario was first launched and there may be even stronger opposition this time, given the greater possibility of a hung parliament actually happening. The very idea of perhaps taking a majority of Scottish seats, then being asked to keep a Unionist party in power, in order to be given no more than "Home Rule" will be anathema to them. They want independence, not to be the catalyst that allows Unionists to claim that Devolution works.<br />
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What could be the alternative for a substantial number of SNP MPs in a hung parliament scenario? For a start, there is little hope of Labour granting "Home Rule" and the best the SNP can expect is perhaps a few extra powers over and above those suggested by the Smith Commission. Alex Salmond led a minority government in Holyrood between 2007 and 2011 and has made much of the experience he gained. The term of office was highly successful, albeit the Tories supported the SNP when it mattered. Salmond not only gained experience in running a minority government, he would also learn where and when pressure can be applied effectively, what issues can be forced through and which can be sacrifised. The SNP will first have to decide whether it is prepared to push for independence or if it is content with a few increased powers; to make devolution work or make life difficult for Westminster to function. The decision by Nicola Sturgeon to vote on the issue of the NHS in England makes sense because whatever happens, will effect the budget for the NHS in Scotland. But how far will the SNP continue with helping a Labour government to be successful in England, knowing success in England will invariably have a knock-on effect in Scotland? Will the SNP begin to like Westminster enough to attempt to stay there in numbers because Labour will drive a hard bargain if there is to be a coalition?<br />
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To date, all the speculation has been about the SNP holding the balance of power, with little or no mention being made of the other parties. The reality of the May election is unlikely to match the speculation so far but it is safe to assume the SNP will increase their number of MPs. By how many is the question but unless there is an electoral disaster for the party, the increase should be substantial and how they are used will be vital. The Scottish independence movement is in no mood to be conned, either by the Unionist parties or by the SNP, particularly not by the SNP. Expectations are running high, perhaps too high, but the electorate will know very quickly if it is being sold short. Woe betide the party responsible for the sell out.<br />
<br />Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-92170397298445503142014-11-09T03:50:00.001-08:002015-02-11T12:43:12.792-08:00Vote SNP - And Get Labour!If there is still a place for such a thing as "Emergency Resolutions" on the agenda of the SNP Annual Conference this month, there should be one which addresses the issue of how the SNP will behave, if they have a substantial presence in Westminster after the next general election. With the latest polls showing Labour in melt-down in Scotland, the problems with Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour Party and the Scottish "branch office" facing its own leadership contest, the election prospects for Labour in Scotland do not look good. One poll showed their Scottish MPs reduced to 4, losing the other 36 to the SNP. The thought of that actually happening gives me no end of pleasure but, realistically no experienced follower of Scottish politics expects it to happen. However, if the current mood in Scotland continues to the next general election in May 2015, the SNP looks likely to take a substantial number of constituencies from both Labour and the Lib/Dems, giving them anything up to 20 seats in Westminster. That is 9 more than the 11 seats the party won in October 1974 and, depending on the seats won by the other Westminster parties, including UKIP, some commentators, as well as more enthusiastic members of the SNP, have speculated about the SNP holding the "balance of power".<br />
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We have been here before, prior to the election of 1987, when the "hung parliament" scenario of Alex Salmond and his infamous, " if Parliament is to be hung, let it hang by a Scottish rope", persuaded the SNP to run that central campaign theme, talking up the Labour vote in Scotland and leading to the loss of Western Isles and Dundee East to Labour. This time the speculation may be a bit more realistic but it throws up its own problems for the SNP, some constitutional, others strategic and tactical which go to the heart of what the New SNP actually stands for. On 2nd November, Alex Salmond said, "I certainly think there is no chance whatsoever of the SNP ever going into coalition with the Conservative Party..." "I think it is unlikely (to go into coalition) with Labour, but who knows?" He went on to say it would be taken on a "case by case basis" if Labour wanted SNP support. Alex Salmond has still not said whether or not he will stand for Westminster, although every man and his dug expects him to do so, therefore making any comment whatsoever, about the likely strategy of the SNP's Westminster group, could cause difficulty both for them and more importantly, his successor Nicola Sturgeon.<br />
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Of even more importance, it raises serious questions about what New SNP means by independence, the message it sends to the thousands of new members. Salmond also said, "Labour will not be forgiven or forgotten for a generation in Scottish politics....because of their cooperation with the Tories on the Unionist side in the independence referendum....they will pay a heavy price for many years to come." Not if the SNP keep it in power in Westminster it won't, in return for what? Callaghan preferred to risk defeat in a general election in 1979, to granting any concessions on devolution. He was more responsible for the Thatcher years than ever the SNP was. Will the current Labour party be any different? What is the purpose of the SNP, is it to get independence or make it easier for Westminster and Devolution to work? After a generation of the "Gradualist" approach of demonstrating ability and competence in devolved government, the SNP failed to win independence in the referendum, which was the promise held out, in return for unquestioning support for the gradualist strategy. For the SNP to keep ANY Unionist party in power in Westminster must cause enormous concern and strain among the members, but to keep Labour in power would be to breath life into the one party in Scotland which has betrayed the interests of the Scottish people more than any other. The upsurge in SNP membership is a direct consequence of Labour's perceived betrayal in the referendum and those new members want Labour to be punished, not kept in office.<br />
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In his new book, "Scotland. The Battle for Independence", Gordon Wilson, the man who led the SNP for eleven years, commented, he was "struck by the ambition of many delegates who wished to have a career in the devolved parliament now that the list system made this a realistic proposition". In other words, the Ministerial Mondeo syndrome. Gordon was commenting on the period when Gradualism was adopted by the party and independence came TENTH on the party's list of ten priorities. Since Salmond announced he was standing down as both leader of the SNP and First Minister, I have spoken to a number of party members, most of them full of enthusiasm for the future, although bitterly disappointed with the result of the referendum. Inevitably, discussion included the strategy of the referendum campaign itself, as well as hopes for the future. The future obviously included the new leadership of Nicola Sturgeon, as well as the candidates for the Deputy Leader. As usual, I stressed the inconsistencies, to say nothing of the contradictions, in New SNP's policies, some of them of long standing, particularly on the question of the EU.<br />
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"Independence in Europe" was always a nonsense and became even more of a nonsense as EU centralisation increased. But the SNP has been nothing if not consistent in its total inability to see the contradictions in its policies on the EU. At its National Council in March 2000, the party agreed to support the euro, with control of monetary policy, interest rates etc passing to the European Central Bank. In the same motion, it also emphasised its support for the EU as a <b>Confederation.</b> That this was an impossibility passed them by, and despite the EU's increasing centralisation, SNP support for the organisation has also increased. The three candidates for the Deputy Leader's post in the SNP, appeared on Scotland Tonight and were asked what their attitudes were to a number of SNP policies which had been highlighted during the referendum. On immigration both Stewart Hosie and Keith Brown favoured <b>controlled immigration</b> but also emphasised that membership of the EU is "<b>essential".</b> It is inconceivable that two Ministers in the Scottish government do not know that members of the EU <b>cannot </b>control immigration. They also still favoured the currency union which caused so much of a problem for the SNP and the Yes Campaign during the referendum, and which they were told was "incompatible with sovereignty" by none other than the Governor of the Bank of England, as well as numerous other economists.<br />
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A large Westminster contingent of SNP MPs will inevitably cause tension if their handling of strategy and tactics there, does not find favour with the leadership in the Scottish Parliament. At the same time, the leadership in Scotland will find it difficult to micro-manage events as they unfold in both Holyrood and Westminster. Keith Brown said he wants to ensure that the new members are allowed to play a part immediately, in policy formation in the SNP. Delegates to Annual Conference will have been decided long ago, by the branches and constituencies, therefore are unlikely to include many new members. A great many of those new members are going to be more than a little disappointed if the campaign slogan for the next Westminster election is to be "Vote SNP - And Get Labour"Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-72501424057695101772014-11-02T04:14:00.000-08:002015-02-07T09:17:41.252-08:00Nicola Was Wrong, Very Wrong To Open Pandora's Box On EUThe timing was unfortunate to say the least, but it merely underlines the fact that short-termism in politics rarely comes without its down side. Unionists have been doing their utmost to emphasise that the result of the referendum should be accepted by those who voted Yes, by which they mean the campaign for independence should be shelved for at least a generation - as Alex Salmond said it would be - or, better still, shelved permanently. There was even a suggestion that it should be written into the constitution that Scottish independence is illegal. That is only one reason why Nicola Sturgeon was wrong to suggest that Scotland should have a veto, if the rUK votes to leave the EU. Her suggestion would mean that irrespective of how much support there was for leaving membership of the EU, in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, Scotland should be able to stop the exodus in the event that a majority of Scots voted to remain in the EU.<br />
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For a party that has spent over 70 years complaining of the lack of democratic control in Scotland, because of Westminster's lack of concern for Scottish interests, to suggest that 5 million people should be able to subvert the decision of almost 60 million, is hardly going to be taken seriously. Ironically, Ms Sturgeon has been let off lightly, both by the other parties and the mainstream media. Of far greater importance, Ms Sturgeon has opened the door for Unionists to suggest a quid pro quo, the next time Scots demand either another referendum on independence, or build up such a pressure for independence, that a majority of seats in Holyrood or of Scotland's Westminster contingent, for parties which support independence, will be considered sufficient for independence negotiations to take place. That was the original policy of the SNP and recent opinion polls show it is perfectly possible in the current climate. Within days of Ms Sturgeon's statement, two opinion polls showed that if there was a general election now, the SNP would have a majority of both the popular vote and seats for Scottish constituencies in Westminster. MORI gave the SNP 54% of the vote and 52 parliamentary seats, YouGov gave them 52% of the vote and 47 seats. Other polls showed that over 50% of Scots want another referendum within five years, while 66% want one within the next ten years.<br />
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Why was Nicola Sturgeon wrong to suggest Scotland should have a veto on the result of a UK referendum which says the UK should leave the EU? There are two reasons, both of which are likely to cause problems for the SNP in the future. The first is the assumption Scots will vote Yes to remain in the EU, more of which below; the second is perhaps more dangerous for the future of the independence movement. She has elevated what was no more than a referendum campaign soundbite to be one of the central pillars of the Treaty of Union of 1707. When David Cameron said, "The UK is a family of nations", he no more meant that to be taken literally than any of the other promises that he made of "more powers to the Scottish people". In time, a very short time, the comment would have been dismissed, as it should have been, had Nicola not given it a life of its own. Some Unionists have suggested that like Baldrick, Nicola "has a cunning plan" to disrupt Westminster and to continue to build on the energy in the independence movement, created by the referendum campaign. If making life difficult for Westminster was behind the move, it might have some merit, but Nicola has also said that a majority of seats for independence parties in the next Westminster election, will not be sufficient to declare independence. That suggests that disrupting Westminster is not going to be a serious consideration, as winning a majority of seats has far more validity than allowing 8.7% of the population to have a veto on the decisions of the other 91.3%.<br />
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By opening this Pandora's Box, Nicola has given Unionists the opportunity to use it to claim a veto on any future decision of the Scottish people to vote for independence. Cameron and other government figures have initially dismissed out of hand, any veto on the EU for Scots, which is no more than might be expected. If however, the mood in Scotland shifts, as it has done since the referendum, we can expect the veto claim to be resurrected swiftly, but by Unionist politicians this time. A number of letters have already appeared in newspapers, asking if Nicola would expect the rest of the UK, or any part of the rest of the UK, to have a veto on any future decision of the Scots to declare Scotland independent. Of course there has been no reply because there is no reply that could possibly retain the notion of a Scots' veto and at the same time, recognise the sovereignty of the Scottish people. There would be absolute outrage in Scotland at any suggestion that we should be denied the right to independence, on the votes of people in other parts of the UK and if the SNP persists in taking this line we can be certain there will be serious demands for a quid pro quo.<br />
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Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP are wrong to assume Scots will vote Yes to continued membership of the EU, although the notion of giving Scots a veto is based on that assumption. If Scotland voted NO to continued membership, the veto would not be necessary. A referendum on membership of the EU while Scotland is still a part of the UK, would be a different animal from a referendum on the EU if Scotland was an independent country. Whatever shortcomings exist in Westminster's guardianship of Scottish interests in the EU - fishing is only one example of many - Scots will view the size of the UK including Scotland, as a better bet to fight EU power and bureaucracy, than Scotland on its own. There are currently 751 MEPs in the European Parliament of which the UK has 73 or 9.7% of the total, of which Scotland's share is 8. If Scotland were in the EU as a sovereign state, we would have 13 seats or 1.7% of the total, the same as Denmark, Finland and Slovakia. The SNP has consistently complained about being at a disadvantage in the Commons, how much greater would the disadvantage be in the European Parliament?<br />
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As many as 36% of Scots have regularly expressed their desire to leave the EU with just under 50% wishing to stay in, but that is before any campaign on membership has even been conducted. The SNP refuse point blank to consider a referendum on the EU in an independent Scotland, despite 67% of Scots saying they want a referendum on membership. The SNP arrogantly claims a referendum is not necessary and constantly over estimates the support for the EU in Scotland, as the election of the first UKIP MEP and successive opinion polls have shown. The arguments the SNP make for continued membership of the EU are exactly the same as the arguments Unionists make for continued membership of the UK. It is all about jobs, trade, disruption of industry, with a complete absence of any mention of democratic control, sovereignty, bureaucracy and neglect of Scottish interests. Right from the outset, Independence in Europe was an oxymoron and the increase in centralised control in the EU, since the SNP adopted the slogan, makes it even more of an oxymoron. More and more Scots have recognised as much and now view the EU with increased suspicion. The SNP is out of kilter with the views of the Scottish people and if it continues to assume it can push the Scottish people to adopt membership of the EU on their sayso, that will soon be brought home to them. Nicola is coming to office with a great deal of goodwill on the part of the membership of the SNP. She should not waste it by ignoring their fears for the future.Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-35435810883810652892014-10-27T06:57:00.002-07:002014-11-03T08:09:25.448-08:00Nicola Will Take Advice - But From Whom?Even before assuming office as First Minister and leader of the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon has not been short of advice on how she should proceed. Fears have been expressed, mainly by the Unionist press and others who voted No, that the "fundamentalist" wing of the SNP will now hold sway, as disappointment at the Referendum result bites deep. There will be more of that below, but in the main, fear of the "fundamentalists" has been expressed by those who haven't a clue what a "fundamentalist" is. I reacted with incredulity when I first saw Jim Sillars described as "the darling of the fundamentalist wing of the party". Whatever term is used to describe Jim's political philosophy in the context of the SNP, the least accurate is "fundamentalist" but the label has been allowed to stick, which merely reinforces my point.<br />
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The Scotsman leader earlier this month said, "Ms Sturgeon is about to become the gradualist leader of a party of nationalist fundamentalists" and "Her natural instinct is to take a pragmatic approach...but this clashes with the more fundamentalist view held by tens of thousands of new party members" and "let her lead by example, finding solutions that suit the majority (those who voted No) rather than play to the unrealistic demands of her new allies." There has been much more of this type of grossly superficial analysis from the Unionist media in general, all of it geared to dampening the enthusiasm and determination of those who voted Yes, to continue to campaign for independence. With the total disarray of the Unionists, both in Westminster and Holyrood, the last thing they want is to see is an organised, determined and growing section of the Scottish people, committed to independence; not the ersatz concoction with which we were presented in September, but the real thing.<br />
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Whether we will get that from Nicola is still a moot point and it will depend largely on the advice she both receives and accepts. A useful starting point would be to stop the re-writing of the history of the SNP which has gone almost unchallenged since 1990, the year Alex Salmond was elected leader. The media would also do well to take note. "Fundamentalist" was a term of abuse, used by the '79 Group to describe those members of the SNP who argued that the pursuit of independence was more important than the pursuit of socialism or branding the SNP with a pseudo left-wing image, in order to attract the working class vote. They also claimed "fundies" were not interested in anything other than independence. As one of the "original" so-called fundamentalists, I never knew anyone from the "traditional" wing of the SNP who was disinterested in the social problems created by decades of neglect and mismanagement of the Scottish economy, by successive Westminster governments. As we had all suffered to some extent from them, why on earth would we not want to change them?<br />
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The views of the '79 Group prevailed and under the leadership of Alex Salmond, the pursuit of independence was set aside, in favour of a strategy of making the SNP electable by appealing to the working class, hence the visceral hatred of Labour and Labour of the SNP. The reality is that neither the Labour Party nor the SNP is a socialist party, their appeal is based on class consciousness rather than political principle. After twenty-five years of Salmond's strategy, the SNP has become electable - for Holyrood - but the middle classes have been almost totally alienated, something the traditional wing of the party always warned against, and the majority of Scots have rejected independence. On her endorsement as leader of the SNP, Nicola said, "let us build a better country". That cannot be done without the support of the majority of Scottish society and an appeal to only one section of that society, will do little to encourage that support, as the referendum showed. Independence must also come off the back burner and Scots encouraged to embrace it as the only means by which that "better country" will be achieved.<br />
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Early reports of branch meetings of the SNP, suggest that many of the new members see themselves as the "class warriors" that made up a substantial part of the foot soldiers of the Yes campaign. They are angry, feel let down by Westminster, even conned but what they are not, are "fundamentalists". Many of them are demanding independence, while denying they are Nationalists, therefore it has to be asked exactly what they mean by independence? How long will their current anger sustain them, will they still be there a year from now, are they prepared for the kind of long haul the SNP's recent strategy makes inevitable? Are they prepared for the machinations of the Westminster parties, as they seek to kick Scottish unrest into the longest grass they can find, hoping to bury the promises that were made until the unrest dissipates? It would be criminal if this was allowed to happen and if it is not, I am convinced a change of strategy will be necessary.<br />
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Nicola's "better country" should also embrace an appreciation of Scotland's culture. I cringed every time Humza Yousaf, or some other leading member of the Yes campaign asserted, "this is not about identity" or "this is not about the kilt or haggis..." as if this was the totality of Scottish culture, those things which identify us as Scots. For some strange reason people like Pete Wishart MP, who made his name with the Celtic band Runrig, or Elaine C Smith, a highly successful actress, did not have a word in their ears, pointing out that The Proclaimers, Deacon Blue and more recently Twin Atlantic, have international reputations. We have world renowned artists in film and theatre, art, music and literature, all of them dismissed as "kilt and haggis". Is it any wonder the No side were so disdainful of us when we portray ourselves in such a dismissive manner?<br />
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During ten years as Alex Salmond's deputy, Nicola did not break ranks once, but neither did the party in general. Arguments about currency and the EU, neither of which could be sustained, were allowed to dominate, such was the internal discipline of the SNP. Others in the Yes campaign were not, or should not have allowed themselves to be, constrained by SNP membership, but unfortunately did little to counter the more nonsensical arguments on the currency and EU. That will have to change. Nicola is starting with a high public approval rating and, as the only candidate for the leadership, obviously has the support of the vast majority of SNP members. The sell out for her tours is testimony to just how popular she is. Hopefully she will use that personal popularity to good effect, as she pursues her aim of "building a better country". As a true "fundamentalist", I just hope it includes independence.Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-15059791673262776802014-10-14T04:24:00.002-07:002014-10-27T03:26:55.242-07:00What Do Yes Voters Mean By Independence. Is it Worth A Candle?After the Union of 1707 was signed, Andrew Fletcher of Saltoun, known to Scottish history as "The Patriot", was in the act of mounting his horse to leave Edinburgh - and politics - when he was asked, "Will you forsake your country?" He responded, "It is fit only for the slaves who sold it." There has been a bit of that attitude in the aftermath of the Referendum, as fingers have been pointed at "the over 55's" or "Edinburgh" or more generally, "the haves". The truth is even more unpalatable for anyone who has spent years campaigning for independence, because a map of the voting patterns shows in stark detail just how widespread, was the opposition to what was presented as independence. Even in parts of the country which have produced a solid vote for the SNP for many years, the size of the No vote came as a surprise. We were not asked to vote for the SNP but the association of that party with independence, albeit it has hardly been the party's priority since Alex Salmond was elected leader in 1990, led most people, commentators included, to assume that a vote for Yes and a vote for the SNP were one and the same. In Aberdeenshire, Perth & Kinross, Angus and Moray for example, the No vote was either very close to, or in excess of 60% of the votes cast.<br />
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It is now generally accepted by the Yes side, that "Project Fear" triumphed and there is no doubt there was a strong element of fear - over pensions, currency, jobs - in many of the stated reasons for voting No. Sir Alexander Malcolm MacEwan, the first leader of the SNP 1934-36, made two observations that are just as apposite today as they were then. He said, "It is plain truth that no great national movement was ever founded on caution and half-hearted measures..." and "The objections to Home Rule are not so much reasoned arguments as vague apprehensions, but fear is often more potent than reason, and must be dealt with...". There has been no shortage of comment since the referendum, much of it made in anger, but there is little sign of any great analysis of either the campaign or the way forward. Candidates for the deputy leadership of the SNP are reported to be split, with Angela Constance claiming her campaign will concentrate on "Independence", while Stewart Hosie and Keith Brown are both reported as being in favour of accepting that independence is lost for a generation.<br />
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Some on the Yes side, along with a few on the No side, argue that the majority of Scots really want "Devo-Max" which is apparently different from "Devo-Plus", although quite what the differences are is not explained. Others, including Nicola Sturgeon who wants "control of everything except defence and foreign policy", claim that what is wanted is "fiscal autonomy". It has still not registered there is no such thing as fiscal autonomy because without control of monetary policy, there can be no control of taxation, unless we are prepared to have the same kind of debacle that has been created in the Euro zone. We are still being bludgeoned with assertions of how important membership of the EU is to Scotland, how many jobs depend on that membership. Again there is no discussion of the fears being expressed, that the EU is heading for a "lost decade", as the largest economies enter their third recession in six years. Many of the problems have been created as a consequence of the rigidity of the euro, a currency union not a million miles away from the currency union with the rest of the UK, defended to the death - literally - by the Yes side. As yet, the contradictions in demanding the end of one Union with England while cementing "ever closer Union" with the EU, have been either ignored or glossed over, a stance which UKIP will exploit with a vengeance. There is still little if any understanding of the difference between internationalism and supranationalism, but it is something those who demand "independence" are going to have to engage.<br />
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Perhaps the greatest problem faced by the Yes side, and the most obvious problem, is how to get Scotland's middle classes to support independence. I have already said I believe the Yes campaign was a class campaign, from the constant repetition of "we want to create a fairer and more just society" to the concentration on "poverty" to the appeals to "the Labour vote". The rallies which have taken place since the Referendum have continued with the theme, with Tommy Sheridan continuing to play a leading role. Let me get this straight, before I am accused of being anti-working class or of ignoring the social problems in Scotland. I have always been on the "left" of Scottish politics and been recognised as such, but if independence is the priority, and it should be, a successful campaign for independence MAY result in a socialist or social democratic government in an independent Scottish state. A class campaign where socialism is the priority, is unlikely to lead to independence. From what has been said both prior to the referendum and since, many Scots feared the type of government an independent Scotland would produce, as much as feared independence per se. That is not to say the problems of poverty, unemployment, poor housing, health and all the other social ills of Scotland should be ignored but the message has to be tempered in such a way, that the middle classes are not excluded, that they are shown they will have an important part to play in an independent Scotland.<br />
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Another Referendum is not just around the corner, unless Scots react with sufficient anger to the "increased powers" Westminster deigns to hand down to us. We now have the time to decide what we mean by independence. There will be any number among us who will claim, "Independence does not mean what it used to mean", without ever explaining what their version does mean, as they settle for some form of devolution. But for those who believe that to be independent, means to have control of our own affairs without interference from outside organisations, the question of membership of the EU must be an issue. In an increasingly interdependent world, sovereign states have accepted specific treaty limitations to their law-making rights but continue to determine their own priorities within the constraints imposed by their external environment. However, at any level of integration or interdependence, a community of people must ask itself how important it is to retain the right to make its own choices between the options with which they are faced. Membership of the EU denies us that right.<br />
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Despite the issue of the currency union being raised right at the outset of the Referendum campaign, and warnings being given of the fact that such a union would deny us independence, the leadership of the SNP refused to discuss the possibility of a Scottish currency, without ever explaining why. The Yes campaign fell into line but there is no excuse now, not to have it discussed and papers prepared to explain why it would not only be a possible option, but would be the best long term option for an independent Scotland. I have grave doubts that there will ever be another Edinburgh Agreement, which means independence may have to be won by winning a majority of seats in parliament, the original policy of the SNP. Whatever method is used, we have to be better prepared for the type of onslaught we experienced during the last campaign. The starting point however, has to be what we mean by independence and whether it is worth having. <br />
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There was hardly a statement from any of the leaders of the No side, which did not include the words, "I am a proud Scot but..." or "I am very proud to be a Scot but..." None of them ever explained exactly what it was about Scotland or about being Scots, that made them proud. Given the catalogue of inevitable failures that they claimed would befall an independent Scotland, from failure to sell our products abroad, to failure to support our banks, to failure at just about everything, it is difficult to see what there was in which to have any pride. Real pride was reserved for British nationalism and British identity while Scottish nationalism was narrow, isolationist, even racist, while Scottish culture and those things which make up our distinct identity, ware demeaned or mocked. Too many leaders of the SNP and the Yes campaign were only too ready to deny both nationalism and identity, adding to the lack of confidence in the desire to be "just Scottish". Just as devolution and independence are not different degrees of the same thing, Scottish nationalism and a recognition of our distinct identity, have nothing to do with racism, chauvinism or imperialism. If Scotland is ever to be independent, Scots must learn to want independence for its own sake.Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-34049284097713011402014-09-24T15:10:00.000-07:002014-10-15T07:22:50.065-07:00Where Did It All Go Wrong?"Where do we go from here?" That is a question much easier asked than answered. Was it the campaign; was it the question? I happen to think it was both, not that the question was wrong but that it was being asked of an electorate that for the past 25 years has become used to having independence downplayed by the supposed "party of independence". That same electorate was not fooled either, by the sleight of hand of the SNP, attempting to present an economic policy that quite plainly told them independence was not on offer. It was easy for the No campaign to highlight the dishonesty of the Yes side, despite their own campaign of blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy. Perhaps now, those dedicated and sincere people who desperately wanted independence, will accept that electoral success for the SNP is not the same as persuading Scots of the benefits of independence, so that however dishonest the Unionists are, independence will become the priority and will be delivered.<br />
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Perhaps instead of asking just "Where it all went wrong?" we should also ask "When did it all start to go wrong?" I firmly believe it started to go wrong long before the referendum campaign started; in fact I believe it started to go wrong for the SNP and the cause of independence some time before the 1987 Westminster general election. I realise that many of my critics will stop reading now, but many of them have little or no knowledge of the history of the SNP and how much the strategy and tactics of the party have changed throughout that period. Many others are not Nationalists, therefore the class politics, in which the SNP has indulged, chimes with their own view of what the party should stand for and how it should campaign. The failure of the referendum to achieve independence, should surely make them at least examine if the strategy of the last 25 years was correct.<br />
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The SNP did not fight a Nationalist campaign in 1987, it fought an anti-Thatcher campaign and did no more than talk up the Labour vote in Scotland. The 1983 campaign had been a disaster for the party, which spent more time dealing with the problems created by the activities of the 79 Group and the SNG, than it did campaigning. Prior to 1987, the party made a pact with Plaid Cymru in Wales, part of which entailed being prepared to keep a Labour government in power in Westminster in return for constitutional change, but rejecting any deal with the Tories for any reason. It was the first time the party had fought any kind of election on a purely class agenda and under the influence of Alex Salmond, who had been elected VC Publicity, the party talked up the likelihood of a hung parliament in Westminster, under the slogan, "If there is going to be a hung parliament, let it hang by a Scottish rope". There was strong internal opposition to the hung parliament scenario and keeping a Unionist party in power, as there was never any chance of a hung parliament. The strategy was a disaster and I wrote in the Scots Independent after the election, "Dundee East and Western Isles were sacrificed on the altar of anti-Thatcherism".<br />
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In his book, "<b>SNP: The Turbulent Years</b>" Gordon Wilson wrote, "...the central belt strategy had collapsed and with the loss of Dundee East in particular, we no longer had parliamentary representation in any industrial area." The vote was increased by 2.4% to 14% from the 1983 vote of 11.8% and the number of MPs increased from 2 to 3, so that the spin became, "We increased our parliamentary strength by 50%". Labour's vote went up from 35% in 1983 to 42.4% and their MPs increased from 41 to 50 (the famous Feeble Fifty). The vast majority of SNP supporters are unaware that the party has consistently failed to achieve the 30.4% of the vote won in October 1974 which returned 11 MPs to Westminster. In 2010 the party polled 19.9% which returned 6 MPs, the highest number elected under Alex Salmond's leadership. No one can deny the tremendous success of the party in the Scottish Parliament but it also has to be recognised that proportional representation gave it the kick start it needed. Under proportional representation for Westminster, the SNP would have returned 22 MPs in October 1974, a result which could have produced a much different outcome for the party in 1979. The class politics, which has been the strategy of the SNP during Alex Salmond's twenty years as leader, has obviously brought success in the Scottish Parliament but it has alienated the substantial number of natural conservative voters in Scotland and it has failed to convert Scots to the cause of independence. YouGov's latest poll shows that only 8% of Tory voters voted Yes while 20% of SNP voters voted No.<br />
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The campaign run by the No side was a travesty and was well named "Project Fear" but anyone who has been involved in politics in Scotland for any length of time, should have been ready to counter both that and the solid Unionist misrepresentation of the media, particularly the BBC and tabloids like the Daily and Sunday Mail. The Yes Campaign was hardly helped by the protestations of its Chairman Dennis Canavan, and others, when he proclaimed, "I am not a Nationalist" at every opportunity. He was aided and abetted by SNP office bearers like Humza Yousaf who regularly declared, "It is not about kilts, haggis, identity..." That proclaimed to the world that there was something wrong, pernicious and perhaps dangerous, with Scottish Nationalism and that it was better avoided, despite the fact that even the media was prepared to concede there had never been any hint of racism or sectarianism associated with the SNP and the independence movement, despite the best efforts of George Galloway to insinuate that there was. Ironically his colleagues and fellow Unionists in the Loyalists showed us where the racism and sectarianism could be found, when they attacked Yes supporters in George Square in Glasgow. The No side lapped it up, attacking the dangers of Nationalism at every turn. The Yes campaign was a class campaign, an appeal to the disadvantaged, pure and simple, an appeal to Labour voters, doing nothing to promote the culture and identity of the Scottish nation, the things that identify us as Scots to the rest of the world.<br />
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If there was one issue that sunk the Yes campaign more than any other, it was the currency. I have written about it at length and won't repeat the arguments now, as they can be read in several previous blogs. It was an insult to peoples' intelligence to argue that a currency union would give Scots control of the economic levers we need, in order to run our own economy when not just the opposition were pointing out, if a currency union was agreed at all, that allowing another country to control monetary policy, together with agreements on borrowing and spending, would deny us independence. The argument, "it is our pound as well as theirs" was infantile and demeaning. The failure to deal with the currency gave rise to several other concerns such as pensions, debt repayment, the flight of capital and companies to England, the EU and the euro. Supporters were reduced to claiming the currency union was merely a "short term measure", while the leadership was stating they expected/hoped it would last for many years. It is astonishing that the leadership allowed themselves and therefore the campaign, to enter the fight so obviously unprepared for the opposing arguments. The obvious answer for any country renewing its status as a nation state, is to have its own currency, which it can then manage as it sees fit. Why that option was never discussed, even to explain why the leadership rejected it, was never explained.<br />
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The one encouraging outcome of the referendum campaign is the energy it has released among the population, particularly the young. I have no confidence that Westminster will keep to the promises of greater powers for the Scottish parliament, particularly now that the English have realised what is happening. The timetable has already slipped and will slip further. I would be more encouraged by the enormous increase in the SNP's membership if I could be sure of the kind of strategy and platform the party will adopt. If it is more of the same, it is likely the result of another referendum will be the same. No nation that aspires to statehood can afford to alienate an entire section of its population by campaigning exclusively for another section, no nation can create a stable and successful society by fighting a predominantly class war.<br />
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<br />Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-18936808366341152102014-09-21T11:31:00.001-07:002014-09-25T11:08:57.364-07:00Mugged? Or Just Mugs?Those of us who were around in 1979 have spent the last two years ( and a hell of a lot of years before that) warning the Scottish people to beware the promises they would be given by Unionist politicians. That was a bad time for Nationalists, as they saw the work carried out over the previous five years by the SNP's parliamentary group, thrown back in their faces by the Scottish electorate. This time,we knew, as the electorate should have known, that the Westminster MPs cannot be trusted. Within 24 hours of the poll, the promises made only a few days previously, of greater powers for the Scottish Parliament, were being kicked into the long grass. Increased powers for Scotland are suddenly to be conditional on increased powers for England, together with the resolution of the West Lothian Question. Just to ensure there is "fairness all round", Wales and Northern Ireland must also be given further powers, as yet unstated. So, in answer to the question, "Yes, we have been well and truly mugged". And just to make my position clear, I also think we are mugs.<br />
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Alex Douglas Home's infamous request to Scots to reject the Devolution Bill of 1979, as "the Tories would introduce something much better" is so much a part of Scottish political folklore, so ingrained in the minds of any Scot who has an interest in politics and Scotland's political history, it is almost inconceivable that we would fall for it again. Those Labour supporters who have been disgusted by the stance taken by the current Labour Party in Scotland and their coalition with the Tories, should have remembered it was a Labour MP who sunk the 1979 Bill with the notorious "40% Rule". They should also have remembered the Brian Wilsons and Tam Dalyells in the Labour Party, who campaigned against their own party's policy. These are the Labour MPs who are in favour of independence for every country in the world, except their own. This time, it fell to another Labour MP, an ex Chancellor and Prime Minister no less, to sink the knife into the hopes and aspirations of Scots. Step forward Gordon Brown.<br />
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I can respect the views of anyone who favours keeping the Union of 1707 for positive reasons, because they genuinely feel British and can make a positive case, without recourse to hypocrisy or the kind of disdain for Scottish aspirations, history, culture, mores and values that we have come to expect from the "British" establishment. I can have sympathy for those who have a genuine concern or fear for their future prospects, whether it be pensions, health or education for children or grandchildren, even if that fear is groundless and has been manufactured by a series of distortions, half truths and out and out lies. Unfortunately the SNP and Yes Campaign did little to assuage those fears, through a combination of incompetence and distortion that left them wide open to charges of the same kind of dishonesty that haunted the No Campaign. (I will cover the campaign in the next blog.) What I really despise is the rank hypocrisy of the Wilsons, Davidsons, Labour and Tory establishments in general, the Scottish media but particularly the BBC and Daily Mail.<br />
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Gordon Brown was regularly vilified and openly despised, with the kind of racist taunts at his Scottishness that would have been prosecuted had they been leveled at any other minority but which the Establishment tolerated in Brown's case, by the very same people who have deified him for his performance in the Referendum campaign. He is the man who destroyed the pension industry in the UK, during his term as Chancellor, who allowed the banks to cheat, steal and thumb their collective noses at their own customers, to the point where they almost destroyed the UK economy. They have paid millions in fines for corruption and billions in compensation to those they cheated and from whom they stole, using the legislation he introduced, but not a single banker has been prosecuted. In his Mansion House speech in 2007, to the Financial Services industry, Brown said, I congratulate you on those remarkable achievements, an era that history will record as the beginning of a new Golden Age for "the City of London....." The economy collapsed within the next year. He had the gall to tell the Scottish people their pensions would be threatened if they voted Yes.<br />
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The part played by the BBC and Daily Mail will not be forgotten, as their bias became more blatant with every day that passed. The BBC surpassed even its own hypocrisy levels, when it failed to report the riots in George Square for what they were, a show of sectarian racism and thuggery by Union Jack waving toerags. They tried to present it as "a clash between Yes and No supporters", rapidly disproved through use of the internet by those who were attacked. Alistair Darling has tried to disown them, although he was quick enough to condemn the entire independence movement because someone threw an egg at Jim Murphy. We have heard nothing from Ian Davidson. Sorry Messrs Darling, Davidson et al. they are your thugs, they are Unionists to a man and when they spewed all over George Square, they defiled the Scottish nation on behalf of the Union. For more than a fortnight the Daily Mail reported the on line abuse of J K Rowland on a daily basis, abuse that was condemned by every leading figure in the Yes Campaign. True to form, when Andy Murray revealed he would vote Yes, the Mail not only participated in his abuse, they attempted to justify it.<br />
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With the appeals for Scots to come together to work for the common good still ringing in our ears, the timetable for the reforms Brown promised, has already slipped, "English votes for English laws" has become the new mantra in England, reform all round has appeared on the agenda and Jack Straw wants the Union of 1707 to become indissoluble. In other words, another referendum on Scottish independence would become illegal and the main aim of the original English Unionists would finally be fulfilled; the end of Scotland as a separate country and political entity. The English MPs have a point; it is obviously unfair that the English people have been ignored during all the discussions about independence, but the time to raise the issue was before the Edinburgh Agreement was signed. Several leading figures have warned the Westminster government that any attempt to welch on the promises they made would not be forgiven, that Scots would never forgive them. I wish I was that confident. The main parties have been wlching on promises for the whole of my life and if you read history for a lot longer than that. In fact, the UK establishment has welched on promises since 1707 and couldn't care less if Scots don't forgive them. Until we vote for independence, there is nothing we can do about it and they will continue to break promises. Those who voted No will just have to get used to it.<br />
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<br />Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-84469607316484942782014-09-11T06:05:00.000-07:002014-09-21T11:39:03.476-07:00"The Only Thing We Have To Fear Is Fear Itself"When Franklin D Roosvelt, said, "...the only thing we have to fear is fear itself", during his first inaugural address in 1933, he was speaking to a nation which was in the depths of the Great Depression. Unemployment was 25%, with another 33% working part-time, which meant 50% of the work force was unused. Farm incomes had fallen by 50% and out of a total of five million mortgages, 844,000 were foreclosed. Banks were closed and savings lost, no unemployment benefit and no social security. The soup kitchen, riding the rails, hopelessness and abject poverty passed into American folklore with songs such as, "Buddy can you spare me a dime". When, in a recent blog I suggested that Roosvelt's, "the only thing...." was far more applicable to present day Scotland than to America in 1933, it was the comparison of the relative levels of poverty and economic activity that I had in mind.<br />
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Roosvelt, went on to say, "nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror, which paralyses needed effort to convert retreat into advance". There is absolutely no doubt that much of the fear of independence we are hearing expressed by Scots, is both unreasoning and unjustified but which has been engendered by the Unionists during the application of their "Project Fear". Their relentless negativity, not just over the past two years of the referendum campaign, but over generations of propaganda, has damaged Scotland and the Scottish people, not just economically or materially, but psychologically. To instill unjustified fear and encourage lack of confidence in a nation, so that it will cease to aspire to create change or challenge the dominant partner, is criminal. I have been just as relentless in stating that Scottish Nationalism, the desire for independence, is about dignity and self respect, not economics and been accused of insulting those who oppose independence. I may have some sympathy with their arguments if they were not invariably couched in economic terms. Where is the dignity and self respect in believing that independence will inevitably lead to economic collapse, or that Scots will be unable to fund their pension, education or health service?<br />
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Margaret and Jim Cuthbert, who have produced some excellent work on the Scottish economy, said in one of their papers, "The Union has proved itself incapable of exercising proper stewardship, either of an irreplaceable resource like North sea Oil, or of the UK economy. Secondly the Union has failed to honour the kind of implicit bargain of good faith that should exist in any properly functioning union." That is a serious charge but one that can be shown to be accurate in any number of ways. For people who preface every comment with, "I am a proud Scot but.." Unionists do their very best to show what a useless, feckless, uninspiring collection of subsidy junkies, we are. They are also the only people who argue that Scotland will collapse when the oil runs out - next week, next month or next year. They will never have any credibility on oil after hiding the McCrone report and lying to the Scottish people for over thirty years. They are still lying and deliberately ignoring the other sectors of the Scottish economy which are doing well and with independence will do even better, such as food and drink, tourism, life sciences et al.<br />
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Gordon Brown warns us we will not be able to afford our pensions - who pays for them now? - which is rich, coming from the man who destroyed the pension industry in the UK. Standard Life announced yesterday they intend to reduce the pension provision for over 3,000 of their staff but this is just the latest installment of the total destruction of final salary schemes, brought about by Brown's policies when he was Chancellor. The uncertainty created by the currency issue, is said to be causing the finance industry to relocate to England, in the event of a Yes vote, with Standard Life leading the charge. This is the company that made the same threat when Devolution was proposed but is one of the few companies left in Scotland out of the once dominant financial services sector. Where are the great Scottish companies such as GA, Scottish Amicable, Scottish Equitable, Scottish Mutual, Scottish Provident, Scottish Life; all of them taken over and business transferred? When Margaret Curran warns we will lose shipbuilding jobs if there is a Yes vote, has she deliberately forgotten the jobs we lost when Labour were in power for thirty years out of the last 63? One hundred years ago, one fifth of the total ships built in the world, were built on the Clyde. Where are they now? Labour presided over massive job losses not just in shipbuilding but in the railways, mining and steel industries, while Scottish oil revenues were being used to fund the necessary changes in the English economy.<br />
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For a nation that produced some of the world's greatest inventors, scientists, engineers and whose working classes were at one time, the most literate and best educated in Europe, to be afraid of governing itself is almost beyond comprehension. Our history in education and medicine and the part played by the great Scottish thinkers such as Hume, during the Enlightenment, is without equal. We have lost almost two million people in the last 100 years and their talents played a massive role in building the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Their talents could have been used here, in their own country and with the exception of Ireland, no part of the British Isles has lost a greater proportion of its people to emigration. Independence could reverse that need to go abroad to realise aspirations while the great Scottish diaspora will continue to give us the international contacts we need.<br />
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Roosvelt was later said to be the "man who saved capitalism", although it took World War II to put the American economy really back on its feet. The independence movement's ambitions are less lofty than "saving capitalism". It has been repeated countless times but people seem to need reminding that the referendum is not about voting for the SNP or any other party; it is about deciding who governs our country and that is far more important. It would indeed be a tragedy if Roosvelt',s "nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror" was allowed to determine the result.<br />
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<br />Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-67596668597607322802014-09-01T10:48:00.000-07:002014-09-09T12:53:44.651-07:00Does Labour's History In Scotland Justify Trusting Them Again?This blog is simply an update on the one I wrote in April this year entitled, "If Scots Choose Labour Rather Than Independence, They Can Expect Another Kicking". With only two weeks to go until we make the most important political decision any of us have faced in our lifetime, a long, hard look at the alternatives to independence, is absolutely essential. Shadow Scottish secretary, Margaret Curran, issued a statement today, warning Labour voters who might be tempted to vote for independence "to escape the Tories", to remember the "threat to Scottish shipbuilding jobs" that independence would bring. For ANY Scottish Labour MP to warn against independence because we might lose jobs in shipbuilding, really is beyond parody.<br />
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Don't be put off by the list of figures below, because they tell an important story about Labour's record in Scotland, particularly how they have rewarded the trust placed in them by Scotland's population. The wastelands that are still there in parts of West Central Scotland - better known as "Labour's Heartland" - tell the story much more graphically than any list of numbers and figures ever will, but the numbers really are important, because they represent the historical record of Labour's betrayal of the people who trusted them and put them back into office time, after time, after time.<br />
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<b><u>Year of Gen Election</u> <u>No of Scottish Seats Won By Labour</u></b><br />
<b> 1951 Tory Gov 35</b><br />
<b> 1955 " 34</b><br />
<b> 1959 " 38</b><br />
<b> 1964 Lab Gov 43</b><br />
<b> 1966 " 46</b><br />
<b> 1970 Tory Gov 44</b><br />
<b> 1974 (Feb) Lab Gov 40</b><br />
<b> 1974 (Oct) " 41</b><br />
<b> 1979 Tory Gov 44</b><br />
<b> 1983 " 40</b><br />
<b> 1987 " 50 (The Feeble Fifty)</b><br />
<b> 1992 " 49</b><br />
<b> 1997 Lab Gov 56</b><br />
<b> 2001 " 56</b><br />
<b> 2005 " 41</b><br />
<b> 2010 Tory Gov 41</b><br />
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Labour won the general elections in 1945 and 1951, the period where they have to be given credit for the setting up of the National Health Service and the massive restructuring that took place in the immediate post war years, but what followed, at least as far as Scotland is concerned, is massively different. What the figures show is that since the general election of 1964, when Harold Wilson led Labour, the party has never had less than 40 MPs which have been sent to Westminster to represent Scottish seats. That could have been a serious and effective Scottish pressure group but party loyalty always came first. They also show that Labour has held office in Westminster for thirty years out of the last 63, therefore they are as much to blame as the Tories, for whatever has happened to Scottish industry and the failure to deal effectively with the deindustrialisation of the Scottish economy.<br />
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In the coal industry, employment in Scotland fell from 89,464 in 1951 to 2,370 in 1991, but the carnage took place in three stages. Between 1951 and 1961, the numbers fell from 89,464 to 80,410 and between 1961 and 1971, the numbers fell from 80,410 to 34,315 and finally to 2,370 by 1991. The Tories were in power for all of the first stage but Labour was in power for seven years out of the ten years of the second stage when 46,000 jobs were lost and the real damage was done. There is a similar story in the rail industry where jobs in Scotland fell from 55,393 in 1951 to 11,870 in 1991. Again, there were three stages when there was a small reduction from 55,393 in 1951 to 53,990 in 1961, then a loss of 31,000 jobs from 53,990 in 1961 to 22,910 in 1971 and finally to 11,870 in 1991. Again Labour was in power when the real damage was done and although the Beeching reports were published in 1963 and 1965, when he returned to ICI, the bulk of the cuts he suggested were implemented during Labour's term of office.<br />
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One resource that could have saved Scotland much of the pain associated with the various periods of substantial unemployment since 1945, is oil. Had Scotland had the power to control the rate of extraction and proper management of the resource, in other words had we been independent, there would be no queues for second hand food as we are currently experiencing.The McCrone report on the effect oil would have on Scotland, if we chose to be independent, was written in 1974 for the Heath government but was given to the Labour government on April 23rd 1975. Both governments agreed that it would not be in the interests of UK governments if Scots were told the truth, therefore the report was kept secret, until the SNP were able to get it through Freedom of Information in 2005. There is no doubt Scots would have taken an entirely different attitude to independence, had they been told the contents of the report, which stated that an independent Scotland would be as rich as Switzerland with a currency which would have been the hardest of any in Europe, with the possible exception of the Norwegian Kroner.<br />
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In July 1986, with the Tories in government, I attended an unemployment summit arranged by the STUC, as part of an SNP team, together with representatives of the TUs, Churches, Local Government and other groups in Scottish society. This was nothing new as the STUC had called an "Assembly on Unemployment" in February 1972 when unemployment was 85,000; a "Convention on Unemployment" in December 1980 when unemployment was 250,000 and then this "Economic Summit" in July with unemployment at 480,000. Unemployment at this level was a national disgrace as Scotland was the fifth largest oil producer in the world the previous year, 1985. Contributions from the floor suggested that the nature and representation at the Summit, was a clear indication of the "power of Scottish society". Gordon Wilson, then leader of the SNP, pointed out that the Summit was "a sign of weakness rather than power". No one openly disagreed. Jim Callaghan predicted that oil revenues would be around £4 billion by the middle of the 1980s but they were £12 billion in 1985. Dennis Healey admitted on May 19th 2013, that they had quite deliberately reduced the true wealth in the North Sea "because of the fear of giving the SNP a boost."<br />
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Scotland has little to thank Labour for, as my previous blog shows in more detail, and when Margaret Curran has the gall to warn us that we will lose shipbuilding jobs if we vote Yes, I don't know whether to laugh or cry.Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-90864200968280929232014-08-11T03:43:00.000-07:002014-08-13T08:40:57.425-07:00Hae Ye Ever Taen A Richt Scunner?Whenever my mother was really fed up with something, that was her favourite saying. We then knew that what was to follow had really got up her humph. I don't think I have ever been so scunnered with politics in my life and I can't think of any English word that comes anywhere near the depth of emotion evoked by that very Scots word, scunnered. I have been a political animal all my life, joining the SNP at age 15 in 1955, spending the next thirty-five years involved - except for breaks through army and police service - , taking degrees in political science and economics and going through the highs of the 1960's and early 1970's to the depths of despair in 1979. Leaving the party in 1990 left an enormous hole in my life but the reasons for leaving were, to my mind, perfectly justified, therefore the degree of disappointment was tempered to some degree, by my determination to continue to argue the case which led to my leaving - opposition to the EU and a United States of Europe.<br />
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The scunner I have taken now, has nothing to do with my commitment to independence - which will never change - or to my immense interest in politics per se, the theory, philosophy, the determination to argue the case for a decent society; no, the scunner is with the people involved on both sides of the independence debate and the inaccuracies, half-truths and out and out deception, that is churned out daily, by both sides. The recent blog, "£750,000 Of UK Government Lies" covers much of this, contained in the latest UK Government leaflet, while the last blog, "If Scots Vote No, Blame Salmond" covered it in spades. A couple of days before the European elections, Bill Jamieson wrote in The Scotsman that for the first time in his life, he was seriously wondering if he should bother casting a vote at all, such was his level of disinterest. As only 33.5% of Scots bothered to get up off their backsides to vote in that election, the vast majority of Scots obviously agreed with him. As I type this, there is a piece being broadcast on Scotland Tonight, on "celebrity endorsement" and the effect it is having on the independence debate. If there is one thing that really heightens the degree of scunneration, it is to hear what Simon Cowell or J K Rowling thinks about independence and the coverage given by the media to every piece of trivia that dribbles from the mouths of the so-called social elite. Like the vast majority of Scots, if asked, my comment would be, "Who the hell cares?" As for the "Love You Scots, Missing You Already" love letter signed by 200 of that self-styled elite, you know what you can do with that.<br />
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Ask me what I think about the fact that another 100,000 Scots are going to be living in poverty, or what I think will happen to those Scots currently living in poverty BUT, who are in full-time employment and are struggling to pay their mortgages NOW, or HOW those Scots are going to be able to pay their mortgages when interest rates are pumped up because of the housing bubble in London and the South East of England? Ask me if I think Scotland needs a rise in interest rates just now, or in six months from now, and what effect that will have on the Scottish economic recovery? Believe me, that is of far greater interest to me and thousands of other Scots, than whether Michelle Mone has moved out yet, or whether she is still trying to make up her mind. She might find a few drunken students living next door, a much bigger threat than independence. Instead of asking Scots what will make the bigger difference, £1,400 of a potential bribe if they stay with the UK or, £1,000 potential bribe if they go for independence, why not ask them which of the two government ministers is telling the truth and why, in the latest spat over alleged taxation proposals.<br />
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On Sunday June 29th, Danny Alexander, Treasury Chief Secretary claimed in a letter to First Minister Alex Salmond, that the FM had finally conceded that a currency union with the rUK was now "off the table". He wrote, "Voters can only conclude from this explicit statement of fundamental fiscal divergence that you now accept that a currency union is not going to happen." The "statement" from the SNP, which provoked this letter, was to the effect that in the first three years after independence in 2014, Finance Secretary John Swinney vowed that under an SNP government, public spending would rise by 3% each year. This is in direct contrast to the debt proposals presented by the Coalition, which states that public spending can rise by NO MORE THAN 1% EACH YEAR. Under any currency union agreement, this simply could not be allowed, a degree of divergence which has been explained frequently, as being not just unacceptable, but IMPOSSIBLE. Several top economists and independence supporters have explained on numerous occasions, that a currency union, as outlined by the SNP's own Fiscal Commission AND accepted by John Swinney, as well as the Governor of the Bank of England, would simply NOT allow that to happen.<br />
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As always, Alexander's statement was dismissed by the SNP as, "adding insult to injury". That statement from the SNP did NOT mean that Alex Salmond had accepted a currency union will not happen. As far as Salmond is concerned, (did you see the debate?) a currency union will happen,. BUT, a degree of divergence of 3% in the borrowing levels in Scotland and the rUK, is NOT going to happen in any currency union that includes rUK and Scotland. It is that kind of nonsense that led to the crisis in the Euro and there is no way a UK government is going to allow it to happen in the UK. A recent paper produced by Jim Cuthbert for the Jimmy Reid Foundation shows quite clearly that the debt situation which prevailed in the UK at the time of the economic crisis in 2008, has improved only slightly in 2014. In his conclusions, Jim Cuthbert states, "The crisis of 2008 however, did not cure the problem; the emergency measures taken at the time prevented the systemic collapse, but only at the expense of shoring up the financial sector's balance sheet by quantitative easing, and by unprecedentedly low interest rates. In the process, the other sectors of the economy, which had already been weakened by the expansion of the financial sector, were further distorted." This is one of the reasons that Jim Cuthbert, a life-long nationalist, has argued in favour of a Scottish currency.<br />
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There was more coverage of the EU in recent weeks, than we are used to in the Scottish press as a consequence of the election of Jean-Claude Juncker to the post of President of the European Commission. As far as some of the UK media was concerned, the most interesting feature of the man is the allegation he is an alcoholic. David Cameron opposed his election from the outset and his failure to gain any support in the rest of the EU - with the exception of Hungary -.is said to have diminished his already non-existent standing in the EU. How that can be managed is still a bit of a mystery. Alcoholic or not, the SNP were convinced they "could deal with this man", despite the fact his main aim is the abolition of the nation state and the creation of a United States of Europe. Ah well, we have dealt with worse, we elected UKIP.<br />
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It is pointless to hope that things will improve in the final few weeks of the campaign. My only consolation is that I will be on holiday when the rest of the country has to suffer the second installment of the "THE DEBATE". I don't think I could stand another version of the previous performance without doing serious damage to the TV. When we see what is happening in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Gaza or other parts of Africa, where people are dying in their thousands, striving to build a settled home for themselves, where all they ask is to be allowed to live in peace in a country which is theirs, while we are squabbling about whether a few celebrities will go or stay if we declare some form of sham independence, we really should be ashamed of ourselves.<br />
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<br />Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-66791407598782442712014-08-10T10:56:00.002-07:002021-08-22T15:02:36.984-07:00If Scots Vote NO, Blame Alex Salmond.<span style="font-size: medium;">There were numerous critics, many of them quite vociferous, of the early part of the opening ceremony of the Commonwealth Games, which was likened to a massive pantomime highlighted by "that kiss" by John Barrowman. The critics were summarily dismissed by the self-styled intelligentsia, who informed us they had missed the whole point of the exercise, which was to parody all the cliches associated with tartanalia, Brigadoon et al and it really was Glasgow humour at its best - edgy, off the wall and far too intelligent for ordinary plebs to take in. If a sizeable section of the Scottish public didn't understand the message being broadcast, what hope did the millions in the Commonwealth have, who had never heard of Brigadoon, had never visited Scotland and barely understood the accent, never mind the humour?<br />
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A similar approach is being used by SNP and Yes supporters who try to defend the obsession with a currency union that is on the point of destroying the independence campaign. With a degree in the subject, thirteen years of teaching and lecturing in it and thirty three years in the financial services industry, handling millions of other people's money, I do have some notion of what economics is about, what a currency union is, the advantages and disadvantages of currency unions, how currencies are managed and mismanaged and the various options an independent Scotland would have in handling its currency, in the event of a Yes vote. Despite all of that, I have to admit to being totally unable to understand Salmond's obsession with a currency union, because explanation there has been none.<br />
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In my 35 years inside the SNP, I never used the ad hominem approach in debate, it was never my style to attack individuals and since I left the party in December 1990 I have followed that course, despite being a regular critic of what I see as the party's lack of commitment to independence. Unfortunately, I am now going to make an exception to that rule and state quite bluntly, if Scots vote No in September, the person who will carry the blame will be Alex Salmond whose arrogance has now become unbearable. On the question of currency, under his leadership, the SNP has been up more blind alleys than the three blind mice, and no longer has any credibility left. Salmond claimed the pound sterling "was a millstone round our neck", wrote to Fred Goodwin to congratulate him on the takeover of ABN AMRO when wiser heads in the financial world were advising against it, and insisted Scotland should join the euro long after it was obvious to the world at large, let alone those dealing in finance, that the single currency was a disaster for half its members. Now he demands the rUK grant Scotland a currency union and London continues to control the Scottish economy, and we all agree to call it independence, more of which below.<br />
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Several of my critics on here tell me I fail to see the "wider picture", that the SNP has devised a ploy so clever, that the whole argument of demanding a currency union is simply a ploy that will leave the government of the rUK floundering in the negotiations that will follow the Yes vote. They tell me the negotiating position the SNP has devised has to remain a secret so that the government of the rUK will be caught out on the day. Of course, since it is a secret, my critics have no idea what it is, in fact, they have no idea if it actually exists, they simply claim it does. Who told them? They can't say, it is a secret, a bit like the "legal advice" that didn't exist. The problem with this scenario of course is, that now the Unionists know there is a crafty ploy to catch them off balance during negotiations, won't they be preparing for all the potential possibilities? We can't say because it is a secret. As a defense of the SNP's obsession with a currency union, it is absolute garbage and an insult to the intelligence of anyone with half a brain. It is also why Salmond's bluster and arrogance will not be enough to carry the argument. In fact, the ploy is so clever and opaque, it is likely to persuade the undecided to vote NO, caught up as they are in a maze of uncertainty.<br />
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The debate between Salmond and Darling was atrocious and there have been reams written about who "won", most of it as atrocious as the debate itself. There may be some doubt about who "won" but there is no doubt about who lost- the people of Scotland and the cause of independence. Salmond started at a disadvantage, having said for months he would debate with only the Prime Minister of the UK. On the night, he couldn't even manage the substitute, although Darling, for all the plaudits he has received, missed the golden opportunity to get the one answer to which we are all desperate to hear. So much tripe has been written and spoken about the currency union that people have lost sight of the most important question of all - INDEPENDENCE. The debate is now littered with dishonesty and distortion, none more so than in the relentless, monotonous mentions of the Fiscal Commission. This august body, with its two Nobel laureates has said a "currency union would be in the best interests of both Scotland and the rUK". The two massive caveats which accompanied that statement are NEVER quoted. They are, "<b>in the immediate aftermath of independence"</b> and<b> "it will not give Scotland control of the economic levers". </b><br />
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In other words, it is not independence. The Fiscal Commission had a great deal more to say on the agreements which would be necessary for a currency union to work, as I pointed out in my previous blog, "Will Scotland Be Independent In A Currency Union?" on 21/5/13, more than a year ago. One of the most important conditions was as follows, "<b>a joint fiscal sustainability agreement is established to govern the level of borrowing and debt within the sterling zone".</b> John Swinney, Finance Minister, is on record several times, as agreeing with the conditions laid out by the Fiscal Commission. None of this was brought up during the debate between Salmond and Darling. One can see why Salmond would want to avoid making mention of any of that at all costs, but what was Darling thinking about? Instead of hammering Salmond with, "What is your plan B Alex?" he should have said, "The Fiscal Commission laid out the following conditions for a currency union to work, conditions which your Finance Minister has accepted,<br />
*<b> The Bank of England will set Scotland's interest rates and control monetary policy, as it does now.</b><br />
<b>* The Bank of England will set the level of borrowing in Scotland, as it does now</b><br />
<b>* The Bank of England will set Scotland's debt management, as it does now</b><br />
<b>* The rUK Government, as a consequence of the above, will have indirect control of Scotland's fiscal policy, as it does now.</b><br />
Can you now tell this audience Mr Salmond, how, under these conditions of control of the Scottish economy, Scotland can possibly be independent, how you can fulfill the promises for change you have made, when your Scottish government will not control its own economy? How does that possibly mean independence?"<br />
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Not even the Nobel laureates would be able to answer that question and neither would Salmond.</span>Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com54tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4191792642137667169.post-67975892227475636872014-06-27T14:55:00.000-07:002014-07-31T13:39:57.746-07:00£750,000 Of UK Government LiesThe UK Government is reputed to have spent over £750,000 putting together a small booklet entitled, "What Staying in the United Kingdom means for Scotland", delivered to every household in the country. There was a considerable outcry when the Scottish Government published the White Paper, about the "waste of taxpayers' money", "use of government employees on SNP propaganda" etc. but as always, with the No Campaign, there has been not a single word raised in protest at the "waste of taxpayers' money" for the dissemination of UK Government propaganda. The White Paper produced by the SNP Government in Holyrood, has been widely condemned as being a propaganda exercise and no more than a campaign manifesto for the SNP. There is no doubt there is some justification in the criticisms made but they are as nothing compared to the blatant propaganda which has been produced by the UK Government, in the alleged guise of "public information". <br />
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There is a distinction between misinformation and out and out lies and, every political party and every government is guilty of disseminating both from time to time. Supporters and opponents will adopt whichever stand they deem to be appropriate in each case, with each highlighting those statements of the opposition, which are most obviously untrue. As an opponent of the UK Government's and Better Together's campaign for the Union, I regard it as an obligation to point out the most blatant attempts by both to mislead the Scottish people, by providing deliberately misleading information or, as in the case of their latest booklet, deliberately lying. The booklet starts by stating, "It's for you to decide and you should make your choice knowing all <b>the relevant facts"</b>. Unfortunately, much of the content is far from being either relevant or factual.<br />
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"<b>By staying in the United Kingdom, our economies grow together"</b> That is no more than a statement of the obvious but what is not stated is that over the past thirty years, the Scottish economy has grown by at least 0.5% <b>each year</b> less than the rest of the UK, ensuring that Scottish economic progress has been greatly disadvantaged as a consequence of government policy. The current boom in London's property market is creating even greater imbalance, leading to speculation that interest rates will have to be increased much earlier than expected. Increased interest rates are the last thing Scotland needs at the moment. <b>"Staying within the UK is the only way to keep the pound we have now" </b>That is a lie. The UK Government may refuse to have a currency union but there would be nothing to stop an independent Scotland from using the pound sterling as its currency of choice. There would be disadvantages in doing so and it would not be the best option for an independent Scotland, but that would be up to Scotland, not the UK Government to decide.<br />
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<b>"Putting up an international border with the rest of the UK would slow growth"</b>. That is not necessarily true as borders, of themselves, do not slow growth. In any case, who is talking about putting up economic borders? English jobs rely on Scottish trade just as much as Scottish jobs rely on English trade, why would either government put up borders? <b>"By staying in the United Kingdom, your money is safe and goes further".</b> Is that meant to be a joke? Did the banking crisis of 2008 not happen? Did the frauds of PPI and CPP not take place? Did RBS alone, not pay out £9 billion in compensation and, unlike the Icelandic Government, did the UK Governments of both Labour and the Tory/Lib.Dem Coalition fail to prosecute a single banker for the billions they cost the UK economy? Wonga and Barclays - <b>AGAIN</b> - are both currently under investigation for financial fraud. Is it just a coincidence that 51% of the Tory Party's total funding is provided by the City of London, that over <b>FIFTY</b> financiers donated over £50,000 each to the Tory Party in 2012?<br />
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<b>"The United Kingdom's financial standing helps keep interest rates low. That means cheaper loans and mortgages." </b>That is no more than a snapshot of the current financial situation. If the London property market is allowed to continue to distort the UK economy, the cost of consumer borrowing will rise much sooner than expected. The UK already has a massive balance of trade and balance of payments deficit and, as that gets worse, as it will do, the pressure on sterling will increase, raising the cost of borrowing. The above claim is a total distortion. <b>"Staying in the UK would keep future energy bills for Scottish households up to £189 a year lower"</b> That is an out and out lie. Scotland's energy situation is far healthier than that of the rUK and the greater the development of Scottish resources, the greater the advantages will be for Scottish consumers. Energy companies in the UK are ripping off consumers at the rate of £101 each year for every family in the country, an increase of 1,000% in five years. Ofgem has ordered a full-blown inquiry into the conduct of energy companies and for the UK Government to make such a claim beggars belief.<br />
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<b>"State Pensions are more secure because costs are shared by 31 million people."</b> this is another out and out lie because the security of State Pensions rely on a great deal more than the size of the population. Taking the rUK Government's argument to its logical conclusion, China's State Pensions would be the most secure in the world and Norway would struggle to pay any kind of pension at all. It is a measure of how little regard the UK Government has for the intelligence of the Scottish people, and the stupidity of their own advisers to advance such an argument in the first place. State Pensions are determined by not just the resources of a country but the way in which those resources are used. Spending £100 billion on Trident, a weapon system that will never be used, ensures UK pensions will never be as good as they could be. Scotland's defense expenditure is only <b>ONE example of how a change in the use of resources can make a difference in the size of the State Pension.</b><br />
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<b>"In 2008, we were able to provide Scottish banks with support worth more than twice Scotland's national income" </b>Had we not been in the UK, would our banks have been in the disastrous position they were in? UK banking de-regulation in common with those in other western countries, caused the financial disaster, allowing the banks to almost destroy the entire economy. The money to bail out the banks was <b>BORROWED</b>, creating the biggest debt mountain for the UK taxpayers, the UK has ever faced, which is hardly something about which to boast. The banks have learned nothing, they still commit fraud, pay out ludicrous salaries and bonuses to bankers, some of whom should have been jailed, instead of being given seats in the House of Lords, which has become the biggest standing joke of a second chamber in the Western World.<br />
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<b>"Staying in the UK is worth £1,400 every year to each person living in Scotland".</b> Why not £1,600 or £1,900 or £2,500 or any other fictitious figure, in fact, why not just pick a number, double it, then treble it, subtract a banana and add an orange? This nonsense does no more than debase the debate to the point where the majority of people will simply switch off. We are being asked to decide the future of our people and nation on the basis of a piece of tawdry and meaningless arithmetic, presented be even more tawdry politicians who can't even be trusted to count their own expenses. <b>"Scotland benefits from public spending that is around 10% higher than the UK average".</b> Scotland receives an annual grant from the UK Government, a grant that is being reduced, and chooses to spend that grant on public services <b>to a greater extent that the rest of the UK.</b> The fact Scots choose to spend our own money on items such as free prescriptions, is then used by the UK Government to suggest that is another reason to stay in the UK, despite the fact the same UK Government denies those advantages to the people in the rUK. We are to be bribed by our own money.<br />
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<b>"An independent Scotland would need to create new public institutions, which would be complex and expensive" </b>This ludicrous argument has already been shown to be a pack of lies created by The Treasury, by Professor Dunleavy of the London School of Economics, the man on whose research the arguments were supposed to be based. The figure of £2.5 billion produced by The Treasury has been admitted as being a figment of some official's imagination and a more realistic figure has been set at £250 million. Many of the departments already exist, others would not be needed and none would be as expensive as those used by the UK Government.<br />
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<b>"The UK is more able to protect Scottish interests in areas like agriculture and fisheries". </b>Surely the biggest lie of them all. The Scottish steel and fishing industries were sacrificed by Ted Heath as part of the entry fee to the then Common Market. Previous blogs have given far more detail but the fishing industry alone has lost over 100,000 jobs as a consequence of the Common Fisheries Policy CFP, to say nothing of the tens of thousands of tons of fish which have been dumped at sea in order to meet quotas that do nothing to either protect fish stocks or create a healthier industry. The Scottish steel industry was one of the best in Western Europe and Ravenscraig Mill, at the time of its closure was the most efficient and largest mill in Europe. Its workforce had been reduced from 13,000 to 770 and its closure led to the closure of another four steel factories in the Lanarkshire area, with the loss of tens of thousands of jobs.<br />
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This ridiculous piece of government propaganda is currently being pushed through every door in Scotland at the cost of £750,000 of taxpayers' money. It is a tissue of lies from start to finish and an insult to the intelligence of the Scottish people.<br />
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<br />Jim Fairliehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10520849145092267490noreply@blogger.com4